Alt\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n olas\u0131 sona ermesine ili\u015fkin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller ile \u015fahin Federal Rezerv duru\u015funun etkisiyle kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.350 dolara yak\u0131n zirveden geri \u00e7ekildikten sonra 4.260 dolar civar\u0131na gerileyerek %1,60 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Dolar Endeksi 100,00 civar\u0131nda seyretti; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201cson a\u015famalarda\u201d oldu\u011fu ve g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde anla\u015fman\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fine dair haberlerden, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinde bir ABD Apache helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc iddias\u0131na (iki pilotun da g\u00fcvende oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor) uzanan ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 99,68\u2019den toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n dikkati \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi verisine \u00e7evrildi. \u015eubat sonundan bu yana y\u00fckselen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla enflasyon, Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinden daha da uzakla\u015ft\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE Mart\u2019ta %3,3\u2019e ve Nisan\u2019da %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, May\u0131s i\u00e7in beklenti %4,2 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, Bollinger Bantlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 4.496 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve alt band\u0131n bulundu\u011fu yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.306 dolar seviyesinin de alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; RSI 30\u2019lar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00f6lgesinde seyrederken ADX 29\u2019a yak\u0131n. Diren\u00e7ler 4.306 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.497 ve 4.687 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, destek 4.100 dolar civar\u0131nda izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n \u00fczerindeki mevcut bask\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7lerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n \u015fahin bir Federal Rezerv beklentisi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00e7eli\u015fkili man\u015fetler k\u0131sa vadeli volatilite yarat\u0131yor; ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck resim para politikas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu belirsizlik, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde net bir de\u011fi\u015fim olu\u015fana kadar alt\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin muhtemelen k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta radar\u0131m\u0131zdaki en kritik g\u00fcndem maddesi yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE verisi. Ekonomistler %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisinin enflasyonun %3,1 ile kat\u0131 (yap\u0131\u015fkan) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi, Fed\u2019in \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funu teyit edecek bir rakam beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu senaryo dolar\u0131 daha da desteklerken, alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu dinami\u011fi daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck; \u00f6zellikle 2022 ve 2023\u2019te Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc jeopolitik risklerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. Bu d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel gerilimler s\u00fcrmesine ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n belirgin bir d\u00fczeltme ya\u015fad\u0131; bu da para politikas\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131n fakt\u00f6r olabilece\u011fini ortaya koydu. Tarih, g\u00fcnl\u00fck jeopolitik g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcden ziyade merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ad\u0131mlar\u0131na \u00f6ncelik vermemiz gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara bak\u0131yoruz. Vade fiyat\u0131 (strike) yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.200 dolar olan Temmuz 2026 vadeli alt\u0131n kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerine sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, mevcut seviyelerin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir yol sunuyor. Bu strateji, olas\u0131 olumlu jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde maksimum riski tan\u0131mlarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maruziyet sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak, ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejisini de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 4.200 strike\u2019l\u0131 put al\u0131p e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak 4.100 strike\u2019l\u0131 put satmak, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 nakit \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir. Bu i\u015flem, teknik analizde dikkat \u00e7ekilen kilit yatay destek hatt\u0131na do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeden k\u00e2r edecek \u015fekilde kurgulan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 100,00 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu teyit ediyor. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r olmaya devam edecektir. DXY\u2019de olas\u0131 bir zay\u0131flama i\u015faretini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; bu, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in ilk sinyalimiz olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve \u015fahin Fed XAU\/USD\u2019yi Mart\u2019tan beri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011fe itti. G\u00f6zler \u00c7ar\u015famba T\u00dcFE\u2019de (%4,2 beklenti). Teknikte 4.306 alt\u0131 bask\u0131; destek 4.100. Put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47774,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49615\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}