ABD Hazine\u2019sinin \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesi %4,192 seviyesinde sonu\u00e7land\u0131; bu oran \u00f6nceki %3,965 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde. Bu hareket, sat\u0131\u015fta talep edilen getiri d\u00fczeyinin bir \u00f6nceki ihaleye k\u0131yasla y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
De\u011fi\u015fim, iki ihale aras\u0131nda 0,227 y\u00fczde puan, yani 22,7 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ifade ediyor. \u0130hale sonucu, yeni ihra\u00e7 edilen \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahviller i\u00e7in getiriyi belirliyor.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesinde getiri oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,192\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, faiz beklentilerinde belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda daha agresif bir Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair net bir kan\u0131t olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu hareket, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin daha kal\u0131c\u0131 hale geldi\u011fine inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u00f6zellikle e\u011frinin k\u0131sa ucuna ba\u011fl\u0131 SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un temmuz FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftaki %40\u2019tan yakla\u015f\u0131k %65\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi, bu \u201c\u015fahin yeniden fiyatlama\u201dya kar\u015f\u0131 bu enstr\u00fcmanlarda k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 do\u011frudan bir strateji haline getiriyor. Bu strateji, piyasan\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131na uyum sa\u011flamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle k\u00e2r elde etmeyi hedefliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn, \u00f6zellikle teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme sekt\u00f6rlerinde hisse de\u011ferlemeleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle Nasdaq 100 endeksi (NDX) \u00fczerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %3,4 seviyesinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine i\u015faret eden son T\u00dcFE raporu, uzun vadeli nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131na duyarl\u0131 (y\u00fcksek duration) hisselerin artan iskonto oranlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr bir faiz \u015foku \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha geni\u015f piyasa volatilitesine yol a\u00e7ar; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle, endeksin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 14 civar\u0131nda tarihsel dip seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda VIX vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu durum, 2022 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki benzer kaymalarla ba\u015flayan h\u0131zl\u0131 volatilite geni\u015flemesini an\u0131msat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek getirilerin yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7ekmesiyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi de olas\u0131 bir sonu\u00e7. Bu nedenle ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar olu\u015fturuyoruz. ABD ile di\u011fer G7 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, dolar cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesi getirisi %4,192\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p 22,7 bp artt\u0131: piyasa Fed\u2019de \u015fahinle\u015fmeyi fiyatl\u0131yor. Strateji: SOFR\u2019da short, Nasdaq\u2019ta put, VIX ve DXY vadelilerinde long pozisyon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49614"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49614\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}