\u00c7in\u2019in merkez bankas\u0131, Nisan ay\u0131nda alt\u0131n al\u0131m serisini uzatarak egemen talebin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi (WGC) verilerine g\u00f6re \u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBoC) ay boyunca 8 ton al\u0131m yapt\u0131; bu, Aral\u0131k 2024\u2019ten bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olurken \u00fcst \u00fcste 18\u2019inci ay al\u0131m anlam\u0131na geldi. \u00c7in\u2019in resmi alt\u0131n varl\u0131klar\u0131 2.322 tona y\u00fckselerek toplam rezervlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %9\u2019una ula\u015ft\u0131. PBoC, Nisan ay\u0131nda Polonya ve \u00d6zbekistan\u2019\u0131n ard\u0131ndan en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
WGC verileri ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 ani ekonomik etkilerin baz\u0131 geli\u015fen piyasa \u00fclkelerini para birimlerini desteklemek i\u00e7in alt\u0131n satmaya itti\u011fi Mart ay\u0131ndaki net sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n Nisan\u2019da yeniden net al\u0131ma d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 2025\u2019te neredeyse ikiye katland\u0131 ve Ocak\u2019ta ons ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 5.600 dolarla t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %23 gerileyerek 4.300 dolar civar\u0131na indi. Son geri \u00e7ekilme, beklentileri a\u015fan May\u0131s ABD istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan piyasalar\u0131n Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla, metalin Ekim 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.300 dolar seviyesine son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc, beklenmedik derecede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen ABD istihdam verisinin do\u011frudan bir sonucu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 272.000 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret eden son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls) verisi, piyasay\u0131 Federal Rezerv\u2019den gelecekte faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisine zorlad\u0131. Bu durum dolar\u0131 ve tahvil getirilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede daha az cazip bir varl\u0131k haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Fiyat\u0131n art\u0131k 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na inmi\u015f olmas\u0131, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve yak\u0131n vadede daha fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan veya oynakl\u0131ktan fayda sa\u011flayabilecek stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu, 4.000 dolar psikolojik seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 ek bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayabilmek i\u00e7in put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 i\u00e7erebilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bu k\u0131sa vadeli bak\u0131\u015f\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131ndan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc uzun vadeli destekle dengelemek gerekiyor. \u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 gibi kurumlar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc al\u0131mlar, piyasan\u0131n alt\u0131nda kayda de\u011fer bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Bu e\u011filim yeni de\u011fil; resmi sekt\u00f6r alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 2022 ve 2023\u2019te 1.000 tonun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak metal i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destekleyici r\u00fczg\u00e2r yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
PBoC\u2019nin son 18 ayl\u0131k al\u0131m serisi, stratejik birikime dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal niteli\u011finde ve ger\u00e7ek d\u00fcnyada May\u0131s 2024\u2019te sona eren benzer bir 18 ayl\u0131k seriyi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131ndan birinden gelen bu istikrarl\u0131 talep, anlaml\u0131 fiyat geri \u00e7ekilmelerinin egemen \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, yaln\u0131zca d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) bir pozisyon almak risklidir.<\/p>\n
Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6tesine bakan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu geri \u00e7ekilme, daha uzun vadeli pozisyonlanma f\u0131rsat\u0131 olabilir. Vadesi para d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put satmak, hem prim geliri toplaman\u0131n hem de istenirse daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyeden al\u0131m yap\u0131labilecek fiyat\u0131 belirlemenin bir yolu olabilir. Bu strateji, alt\u0131n\u0131n yatay kalmas\u0131 veya y\u00fckselmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar ve merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen kal\u0131c\u0131 talebi avantaja d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz: \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 18. aya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; Nisan\u2019da 8 tonla rezerv 2.322 tona \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fed kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 4.300\u2019de, 200 GHO alt\u0131; 4.000 hedefli bask\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47769,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49613"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49613\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}