DJIA, yar\u0131 iletkenlerdeki toparlanma ve ham petroldeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n deste\u011fiyle gecelik ve premarket i\u015flemlerde y\u00fckseldi, ancak seans ilerledik\u00e7e hareket g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetti. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 51.250 civar\u0131ndaki zirveden endeks yakla\u015f\u0131k 820 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 50.450 civar\u0131na geriledi, ard\u0131ndan 50.500 etraf\u0131nda dengelendi. Bu da g\u00fcn\u00fc neredeyse \u201cgidi\u015f-d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201de \u00e7evirirken, piyasa liderli\u011fi ba\u015fka alanlarda zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Dow\u2019un h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilebildi\u011fini ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ip ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019inin yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 gerilemesiyle so\u011fudu; b\u00f6ylece ge\u00e7en cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc sert sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan pazartesi g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %6\u2019ya yakla\u015fan s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 geri verilmi\u015f oldu. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), ABD\u2019li yetkililerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gemi trafi\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi ve Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde gelebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerek yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; mevcut konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda %3,2 artt\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan oda\u011f\u0131n enflasyon ve arz taraf\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 (\u00f6nceki %3,8) gelmesi, ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n %0,5 olmas\u0131 ve \u00e7ekirde\u011fin yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,9 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00dcFE ve cuma Michigan \u00dcniversitesi anketi \u00f6ncesinde, OpenAI\u2019nin halka arz i\u00e7in gizli ba\u015fvuru yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131, SpaceX\u2019in ise 1,75 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki bir de\u011ferleme ile cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc borsaya a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n son toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ikna edicilikten yoksun oldu\u011funa dair net i\u015faretler g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; Dow Jones zirvelerini koruyamad\u0131. Ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z kalan bu ralli bir uyar\u0131 sinyali niteli\u011finde ve mevcut ko\u015fullarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak y\u00fcksek riskli bir hamle. Anlaml\u0131 bir pozitif kataliz\u00f6r ortaya \u00e7\u0131kana kadar \u201cen az diren\u00e7\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131 iletken sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki zay\u0131fl\u0131k \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 bayrak; zira aylard\u0131r piyasaya liderlik ediyordu. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) bu hafta yeniden 18\u2019in \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131; bu, artan korkuyu yans\u0131t\u0131rken sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha de\u011ferli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bunu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte en k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilecek teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131zda koruma alarak hedge yapmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisinde; enflasyonun %4,2\u2019ye yeniden \u0131s\u0131nmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Son istihdam raporunun \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %4,5 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan, bir di\u011fer \u201cs\u0131cak\u201d enflasyon verisi temmuz ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse kesin h\u00e2le getirebilir. Bu nedenle defansif konumlan\u0131yoruz; olas\u0131 negatif piyasa tepkisine kar\u015f\u0131 S&P 500 \u00fczerinde put spread gibi stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
SpaceX ve OpenAI\u2019den gelebilecek devasa halka arzlar, 1999 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz teknoloji arz\u0131 seline benzer \u015fekilde, bir \u201cpiyasa zirvesi\u201d f\u0131s\u0131lt\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bunlar \u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131r a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 \u015firketler olsa da, ayn\u0131 anda piyasaya bu kadar arz gelmesi likiditeyi emebilir ve \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 co\u015fkusunun zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder. Bu da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor: \u015eu an yeni zirvelerin pe\u015finden ko\u015fma zaman\u0131 de\u011fil, temkin zaman\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesi gibi iyi haberin piyasa taraf\u0131ndan tamamen g\u00f6rmezden gelinmesi \u00f6zellikle endi\u015fe verici. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetlerinin faydalar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u015fahin Fed politikas\u0131ndan kayg\u0131 duydu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Faizlere bu odaklanma, ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fcye duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan h\u00e2le getiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda DJIA\u2019da 50.450 seviyesini kritik bir destek hatt\u0131 olarak izliyoruz. Bunun alt\u0131na sarkma muhtemelen bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyecek; bu durumda 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama civar\u0131ndaki 49.650 hedefiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliriz. Piyasa 51.400\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine kararl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p orada tutunamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, rallilere sat\u0131\u015f yapmak daha ak\u0131ll\u0131 bir i\u015flem olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dow, \u00e7ip rallisiyle y\u00fckselse de g\u00fcn i\u00e7i \u201cgidi\u015f-d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d yapt\u0131: 51.250\u2019den 50.450\u2019ye sarkt\u0131. \u00c7ip zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, VIX 18+, beklenen s\u0131cak T\u00dcFE ve IPO\u2019lar risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Temkin, hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47713,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49609","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49609"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49609\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49609"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49609"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49609"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}