USD\/CAD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,3950 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Parite, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri vermesiyle Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc iki ay\u0131n zirvesi 1,3961\u2019den geriledi. \u0130ran ve \u0130srail\u2019in, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurma konusunda anla\u015fmas\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Ancak ihtiyatl\u0131 hava s\u00fcrd\u00fc; zira haberlerde \u0130srail ordusunun olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar \u00f6ncesinde Sur\u2019un (Tyre) baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinin derhal tahliye edilmesini emretti\u011fi belirtilirken, \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu \u0130ran ve Hizbullah ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u201chen\u00fcz sona ermedi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de piyasalarda Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc fiyatlanmaya devam etti. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verileri enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden canland\u0131r\u0131rken, ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini art\u0131rd\u0131. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k\u2019ta 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %43\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %14\u2019t\u00fc. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00dcFE (CPI) ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00dcFE (PPI) verileri odakta. Kanada Dolar\u0131, daha yumu\u015fak petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; ekonomiye ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler ise ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Rabobank iki \u00e7eyrek \u00fcst \u00fcste GSYH daralmas\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekerken, RBC n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki istisnai d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle GSYH verilerinin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 abartt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc BoC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda piyasalar politika faizinin %2,25\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekliyor; Rabobank da faizin y\u0131l sonuna kadar bu seviyede korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,3961 seviyesindeki iki ay\u0131n zirvesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda duraksamas\u0131yla, bu geri \u00e7ekilmeyi kritik geli\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesi pozisyon ayarlamas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 karar\u0131 bir sonraki ana kataliz\u00f6r; ancak faizlerin %2,25\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. As\u0131l fiyatlamay\u0131 hareketlendirecek unsur, bankan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n tonu ve yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verileri olacak.<\/p>\n
Ana oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, piyasalar\u0131n temel y\u00f6nlendiricisi olan Fed patikas\u0131n\u0131 belirlemesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verileri olmaya devam ediyor. Son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporunda 295 binlik s\u00fcrpriz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir T\u00dcFE verisi Aral\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 mevcut %43 seviyesinden rahatl\u0131kla %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda ABD tahvilleri ve dolar endeksinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, BoC\u2019nin faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n kendisinden ziyade ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesine daha fazla \u00f6nem veriyoruz. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesiyle, merkez bankas\u0131ndan gelebilecek g\u00fcvercin mesajlar loonie\u2019de belirgin bir zay\u0131flamaya yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu, 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen durumla tezat olu\u015fturuyor; o d\u00f6nemde y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flasa da BoC\u2019yi daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa itmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ve \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkes, ima edilen volatilitenin \u015fu anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu hafta VIX endeksinin 14\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; tarihsel olarak bu seviye, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlenmemi\u015f jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 olam\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, ani bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y korunmas\u0131 amac\u0131yla ucuz, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/CAD g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc do\u011frudan spot pozisyon yerine opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden ifade ediyoruz. ABD verilerinin s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 ve BoC\u2019nin temkinli kalmas\u0131 halinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel sundu\u011fu i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,4050 civar\u0131nda olan Temmuz vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Bu strateji, riskimizi \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor; merkez bankalar\u0131ndan daha fazla netlik gelene kadar bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 buluyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD 1,3950\u2019de: \u0130ran-\u0130srail ate\u015fkesi dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131rken g\u00f6zler BoC (%2,25 sabit) ve ABD T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE\u2019de. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc CAD\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; opsiyonla 1,4050 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49606"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49606\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}