Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri, Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n rupiah\u0131 istikrara kavu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in piyasaya m\u00fcdahalesiyle May\u0131s\u2019ta 146,2 milyar dolardan 144,9 milyar dolara geriledi. B\u00f6ylece rezervler, Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen 156,5 milyar dolarl\u0131k zirveden bu yana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Rupiah y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana %7,38 de\u011fer kaybederken, May\u0131s\u2019\u0131 dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 17.874 IDR seviyesinde tamamlad\u0131; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerine y\u00f6nelik talebin y\u00fcksek seyretmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Rezervlerdeki azalmaya ra\u011fmen, seviyeler ithalat\u0131n 5,6 ay\u0131n\u0131; kamu d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 servis \u00f6demeleri dahil edildi\u011finde ise 5,5 ay\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layarak 3,0 ayl\u0131k yeterlilik e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etti. At\u0131f yap\u0131lan politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesi; daha s\u0131k\u0131 (kontraksiyonist) bir para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funa ge\u00e7i\u015fi ve m\u00fcdahalenin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra faiz ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. G\u00f6sterge faizin 2026 sonuna kadar %6,00 seviyesine ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, br\u00fct rezervleri desteklemek amac\u0131yla h\u00fck\u00fcmetin d\u00f6viz cinsinden daha fazla devlet tahvili ihrac\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 da belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Endonezya Rupiah\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin etkisiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Dolar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz duru\u015fuyla destekleniyor. Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervlerini 144,9 milyar dolara \u00e7eken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc m\u00fcdahaleleri, kur istikrar\u0131na olan kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Rupiah\u0131n bu aktif \u015fekilde savunulmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev piyasa i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in belirli f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %6,00 seviyesine do\u011fru art\u0131rmaya devam edece\u011fi beklentisi, stratejimizin ana temas\u0131. Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n son enflasyon verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,2 ile merkez bankas\u0131 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, BI\u2019a hem i\u00e7 hem de d\u0131\u015f dinamikler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma gerek\u00e7esi sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Faiz swaplar\u0131 gibi ara\u00e7lar \u00fczerinden k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin y\u00fckseli\u015fine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alman\u0131n temkinli bir ad\u0131m olabilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n BI\u2019\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 test etmesiyle USD\/IDR paritesinde volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite halihaz\u0131rda %9,5 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrediyor; bu da belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor ve opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6zellikle cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ortam, her iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketini yakalamak i\u00e7in straddle gibi opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n avantajl\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Rupiah i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patika zay\u0131flama y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, BI\u2019\u0131n 2018\u2019de geli\u015fen piyasa sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki ad\u0131mlar\u0131, de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurabildiklerini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, basit spot pozisyonlar yerine USD\/IDR non-deliverable forward (NDF) kullan\u0131m\u0131, ilave zay\u0131flama \u00fczerine daha hedefli pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131na imkan tan\u0131yor. Alternatif olarak, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck pe\u015fin maliyetle daha y\u00fcksek USD\/IDR kuruna pozisyon almak i\u00e7in risk reversal stratejilerini de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Endonezya\u2019da alarm zilleri: BI m\u00fcdahalesiyle rezervler May\u0131s\u2019ta 144,9 milyar dolara indi, rupiah YTD %7,38 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u201cUzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d Fed bask\u0131s\u0131yla %6 faiz ve opsiyon\/NDF stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49797,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49604"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49604\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49797"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}