Rabobank, iki \u00e7eyrek \u00fcst \u00fcste daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Kanada ekonomisinin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. 1\u00c7\u2019de GSYH, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki -%1,0\u2019l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan \u00e7eyreklik y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda -%0,1 gerileyerek \u201cteknik resesyon\u201d tan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131. Y\u00fcksek benzin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerinden talep tahribat\u0131 riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131n ABD tarifeleri ve USMCA (ABD-Meksika-Kanada Anla\u015fmas\u0131) etraf\u0131ndaki belirsizlikle ili\u015fkilendirildi\u011fi; bunun da \u015firket ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenini bask\u0131layarak Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f yat\u0131r\u0131mlar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131rken, 2\u00c7\u2019de sert bir toparlanmaya dair s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kan\u0131t oldu\u011fu kaydediliyor. Ticaret de aktivite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131: ihracat -%0,5 d\u00fc\u015ferken, ithalat ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n 4\u00c7\u2019\u00fcnde %2 olan art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndan 1\u00c7\u2019de %12\u2019ye ivmelendi ve bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 2022\u2019den bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f oldu\u011fu belirtildi. BoC\u2019nin nisan tahmini, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2026\u2019da %1,2; 2027\u2019de %1,6 ve 2028\u2019de %1,7 olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ihracat ve i\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir patikada da olsa yeniden toparlanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Arka arkaya iki \u00e7eyreklik negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin bir bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130thalattaki sert s\u0131\u00e7ramayla geni\u015fleyen d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da para birimi \u00fczerinde ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle parite 1,38 seviyesini test ederken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flayan \u201cloonie\u201dden faydalanabilecek stratejileri\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almay\u0131\u2014de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
BoC \u015fu anda stagflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a zorlu bir denklemle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son enflasyon verisi \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %2,9\u2019da kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, ge\u00e7en haftaki istihdam raporu i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 teyit etti. Bu zemin, Banka\u2019n\u0131n enflasyondan ziyade b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceleyece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu da ilave faiz indirimlerini y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor ve Bankers’ Acceptance vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (BAX) uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 destekleyici bir tablo olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada hisse piyasalar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle S&P\/TSX 60, yurti\u00e7i yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki bozulma nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2026 i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca %1,2\u2019lik resmi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini, \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ciddi s\u0131namalarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131na dair bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmelere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynama amac\u0131yla XIU gibi geni\u015f piyasa ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD ticaret politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layarak olas\u0131 bir toparlanmay\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131lmaya devam ediyor. Bu d\u0131\u015fsal riskin piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na tam olarak fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu beklentiyi, d\u00f6viz ve hisse endekslerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d opsiyonlar sat\u0131n alarak fiyatl\u0131yoruz; bu yap\u0131, artan piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik ortam, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn teknik resesyona yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve BoC\u2019yi iki kez faiz indirmeye zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2015\u2019teki gerilemeyi and\u0131r\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nem, Kanada dolar\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve Kanada hisselerinde g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck performansla sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Banka\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131la ili\u015fkin m\u00fctevaz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme projeksiyonlar\u0131 da, defansif pozisyon alman\u0131n en ihtiyatl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: Kanada teknik resesyona girdi. \u0130thalat patlamas\u0131 ve ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 CAD\u2019\u0131 zorluyor; BoC stagflasyonda faiz indirimine yak\u0131n. TSX 60\u2019da risk art\u0131yor, opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49602","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49602","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49602"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49602\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49602"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49602"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49602"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}