Artan hisse senedi ihrac\u0131, tarihsel olarak piyasa zirvelerine, d\u00fczeltmelere veya bo\u011fa ko\u015fular\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7 a\u015famalar\u0131na yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemlerde tepe yapma e\u011filiminde olup, hisse senetleri taraf\u0131ndaki uzun s\u00fcredir devam eden arz dinami\u011finin de\u011fi\u015fmekte oldu\u011funa dair riski art\u0131r\u0131yor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihra\u00e7 d\u00f6nemi ile b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n birle\u015fimi net hisse arz\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak fiyatlar i\u00e7in destekleyici bir unsur (tailwind) yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u015firketlerin, borsaya a\u00e7\u0131lan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6zel \u015firketlerin ve h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda halka a\u00e7\u0131k gruplardan gelecek ek ihra\u00e7lar\u0131n etkisiyle yeni hisse sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zlan\u0131rsa bu dinamik tersine d\u00f6nebilir.<\/p>\n
Temel risk, pozisyonlanman\u0131n \u201cgerildi\u011fi\u201d bir ortamda daha fazla arz\u0131n piyasaya gelmesi. Hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak y\u00fcksek hisse senedi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131, k\u00e2r beklentilerinin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi ve y\u00fck\u00fcn \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 marj varsay\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Br\u00fct ihra\u00e7 artarken k\u00e2r tahminleri yumu\u015farsa, hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 sert \u201clikidite bo\u015fluklar\u0131na\u201d (air pocket) daha a\u00e7\u0131k h\u00e2le gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi ihrac\u0131nda belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemliyoruz; bu da \u00e7o\u011fu zaman piyasa d\u00fczeltmelerinden \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen klasik bir sinyal. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin son veriler, S&P 500 \u015firketlerinin ikincil halka arz\/ikincil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n (secondary offerings) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %45 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun 2021 sonundan bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 tempo oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6zellikle yapay zek\u00e2 temal\u0131 \u015firketlerden gelen bu arz dalgas\u0131, talebi a\u015fma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dola\u015f\u0131mdaki hisse say\u0131s\u0131 ve agresif geri al\u0131mlardan gelen destek \u015fimdi tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. S&P 500\u2019de geri al\u0131m yetkilendirmeleri yava\u015flad\u0131; ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re %15 gerilerken, ayn\u0131 anda bu yeni hisse dalgas\u0131 piyasaya geliyor. Net arz\u0131n negatiften pozitife d\u00f6nmesi, piyasan\u0131n birincil destek mekanizmas\u0131 zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015fken daha fazla hisseyi absorbe etmesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in SPX ve QQQ gibi geni\u015f piyasa endeksleri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) al\u0131yoruz. Volatilitenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yoruz; bu da olas\u0131 bir \u201clikidite bo\u015flu\u011fu\u201d senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) cazip bir hedge h\u00e2line getiriyor. Bu pozisyonlar, artan hisse arz\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 durumunda koruma sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 1999 sonu ve 2000 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemi and\u0131r\u0131yor: teknoloji IPO\u2019lar\u0131 ve ikincil sat\u0131\u015flardan olu\u015fan arz seli, piyasa zirvesinden hemen \u00f6nce piyasay\u0131 doyurmu\u015ftu. Bug\u00fcn de yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 pozisyonlanmas\u0131 benzer \u015fekilde gerilmi\u015f durumda; hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n hisse senedi tahsisleri 40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerine yak\u0131n. Bu yeni arz\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak marjinal al\u0131c\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mevcut k\u00e2r beklentileri de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve hata pay\u0131 b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck F\/K (forward P\/E) \u00e7arpanlar\u0131 30x civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyebilecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc marj art\u0131\u015f\u0131na fiyat bi\u00e7iliyor. Bu nedenle, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sahiplenilmi\u015f (over-owned) teknoloji hisselerinde para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; bu strateji momentumun durmas\u0131 veya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme durumunda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: Hisse ihrac\u0131 h\u0131zlan\u0131yor\u2014tarihte bu genelde zirve habercisi. S&P 500 secondary sat\u0131\u015flar %45 artt\u0131, geri al\u0131mlar yava\u015flad\u0131; net arz pozitife d\u00f6nerse \u201cair pocket\u201d riski b\u00fcy\u00fcr, hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47696,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49601\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47696"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}