G\u00fcney Koreli yetkililer, Ekonomi ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoK), Finansal Hizmetler Komisyonu (FSC) ve Finansal Denetim Kurumu\u2019nun (FSS) kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 acil toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan wonu desteklemeye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nlemler a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Paket; offshore d\u00f6viz (FX) t\u00fcrevlerine daha s\u0131k\u0131 g\u00f6zetim, piyasa suistimali \u015f\u00fcphesi ta\u015f\u0131yan i\u015flemlerin daha yak\u0131ndan incelenmesi ve Ulusal Emeklilik Servisi\u2019nin (NPS) USD forward sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yoluyla d\u00f6viz riskinden korunma (hedge) faaliyetlerinin geni\u015fletilmesini i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nlemler KRW i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli destek olarak konumland\u0131r\u0131lsa da, NPS kaynakl\u0131 hedge etkisinin son d\u00f6nemdeki yabanc\u0131 hisse \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Won\u2019daki de\u011fer kayb\u0131, yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y yeniden dengelenmesine ek olarak yurt i\u00e7i bireysel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirilirken; para biriminin toparlanmas\u0131 bu ak\u0131mlar\u0131n hafiflemesine ve politikalar\u0131n tutarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde uygulanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Koreli yetkililerin, artan g\u00f6zetim ve devlet emeklilik fonunun kur riskinden korunmas\u0131 (hedge) dahil \u00e7e\u015fitli ad\u0131mlarla Kore Wonu i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu s\u00f6zl\u00fc ve do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede agresif KRW k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar\u0131 almada temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/KRW paritesinde ilave yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerin (KRW aleyhine) muhtemelen resmi diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 beklenir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n Won \u00fczerindeki temel bask\u0131s\u0131 belirleyici unsur olmaya devam ediyor. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar May\u0131s 2026\u2019da KOSPI\u2019de i\u015flem g\u00f6ren hisselerde net 5,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi; bu da Kore varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan uzakla\u015fma e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Ulusal Emeklilik Servisi\u2019nin planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 forward sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, USD\/KRW\u2019nin 1420 seviyesine yak\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyrini besleyen kal\u0131c\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in yeterli b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Politika deste\u011fi ile temel \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar aras\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6nemine girilmesini bekliyoruz. USD\/KRW straddle gibi opsiyon stratejileriyle opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n, fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, h\u00fck\u00fcmet m\u00fcdahalelerinin sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc dayatmas\u0131 halinde de, \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z kalmas\u0131 halinde de \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
2022 sonundaki benzer m\u00fcdahale \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz; bu ad\u0131mlar, k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fene kadar Won i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlama sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, KRW\u2019ye ili\u015fkin negatif (ay\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ifade etmek i\u00e7in daha uzun vadeli forward kontratlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz; temel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadeli politika deste\u011fini nihayetinde a\u015faca\u011f\u0131na oynuyoruz. Bu strateji, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ayda ana trendin yeniden bask\u0131n hale gelmesine pozisyon al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdilik Korea Exchange\u2019ten (KRX) g\u00fcnl\u00fck yabanc\u0131 net yat\u0131r\u0131m verilerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair herhangi bir i\u015faret, h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u00f6nlemlerinin etkisini g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ilk sinyal olacakt\u0131r. O zamana kadar, won\u2019daki politika kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi daha elveri\u015fli seviyelerden yeni KRW aleyhine pozisyonlara giri\u015f i\u00e7in potansiyel bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik hamle: Seul, wonu savunmak i\u00e7in acil paket duyurdu; offshore FX t\u00fcrevlerine s\u0131k\u0131 g\u00f6zetim, suistimal incelemesi ve NPS\u2019nin USD forward hedgeleri geni\u015fliyor. Ancak 5,2 milyar$ hisse \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49599","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49599"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49599\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49599"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49599"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49599"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}