ABD toptan stoklar\u0131 Nisan ay\u0131nda %0,6 artarak %0,5\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu veri, ay boyunca stok birikiminin beklenenden bir miktar daha h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7, piyasa uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131na k\u0131yasla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprize i\u015faret ediyor; bu da yak\u0131n vadede mal bulunabilirli\u011fi ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 tedarik zinciri g\u00f6stergelerinin seyrini etkileyebilir. A\u00e7\u0131klamada ilave k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m veya e\u015flik eden ba\u015fka g\u00f6stergeler payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131ndaki beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki toptan stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131, arz\u0131n nihai talebi a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu potansiyel bir ekonomik yava\u015flaman\u0131n erken g\u00f6stergesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, t\u00fcketici ve \u015firket harcamalar\u0131 h\u0131zlanmazsa firmalar\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde sipari\u015flerini azaltabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, May\u0131s ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015f raporunda g\u00f6r\u00fclen c\u0131l\u0131z %0,1\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f ve 48,7\u2019ye gerileyen imalat PMI gibi son d\u00f6nemdeki di\u011fer zay\u0131f g\u00f6stergeleri de teyit ediyor. Birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde bu veriler, ekonomik ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kanaatimizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Piyasan\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe girerken daralma riskini hen\u00fcz tam olarak fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde hisse senetlerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Temmuz sonu ve A\u011fustos vadeli SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 hedefliyoruz. Bu strateji, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde olas\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanmak i\u00e7in maliyet etkin bir yol sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k ayn\u0131 zamanda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara verme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da y\u00fckseltiyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2000\u2019in ba\u015flar\u0131nda ba\u015flayan \u00f6rne\u011fe benzer \u015fekilde s\u00fcregelen bir stok birikimi, \u00e7o\u011fu kez daha g\u00fcvercin bir para politikas\u0131na do\u011fru kay\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabiliyor. Bu nedenle, getirilerin gerileyece\u011fi beklentisiyle 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlarda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca piyasa volatilitesinin mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. VIX halihaz\u0131rda 13 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu seviye uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131nda ani bir art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 ucuz bir korunma arac\u0131 olarak VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 olumlu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 alarm veriyor: ABD toptan stoklar\u0131 Nisan\u2019da %0,6 ile beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Talep zay\u0131fsa yava\u015flama riski b\u00fcy\u00fcr; SPY put, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil long ve VIX call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49598\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}