ABD\u2019de mevcut konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %3,2 artt\u0131; \u00f6nceki ay kaydedilen %0,2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak ivme kazand\u0131. Bu hareket, d\u00f6nem boyunca i\u015flemlerin daha sa\u011flam bir tempoya oturdu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. <\/p>\n
May\u0131s verisi, \u00f6nceki ay\u0131n oran\u0131na k\u0131yasla 3,0 y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k bir h\u0131zlanma anlam\u0131na geliyor. Rakamlar, mevcut konut piyasas\u0131ndaki ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k (aydan aya) momentumu yakalarken, ilkbahar\u0131n daha erken d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclenin \u00fczerinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki mevcut konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki beklenmedik s\u0131\u00e7rama, ekonominin daha \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclenden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir altyap\u0131ya sahip oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketici aktivitesi, Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerine ili\u015fkin takvimini yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesini muhtemel k\u0131lacak. Art\u0131k d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesinde bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, faizlerin \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d kalaca\u011f\u0131 bir ortama g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Eyl\u00fcl vadeli SOFR kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f taraf\u0131nday\u0131z; zira piyasan\u0131n yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimalini fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 gerekecek. CME FedWatch Tool verileri de, bunun gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik verilerin ard\u0131ndan Temmuz\u2019da faiz indirimi i\u00e7in piyasan\u0131n ima etti\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinden %25\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Konut in\u015faat (homebuilding) sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015flar ve kal\u0131c\u0131 konut talebinden beslenen do\u011frudan bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Homebuilder ETF\u2019i (XHB) ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sipari\u015f birikimi (order book) g\u00f6steren se\u00e7ili \u015firketlerde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) al\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak bu hisseler, b\u00f6yle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir konut verisinin ard\u0131ndan birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca momentum sergiliyor; \u00f6zellikle de ulusal konut stokunun h\u00e2len 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n %15 alt\u0131nda raporland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda.<\/p>\n
Genel piyasada ise bu haber, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi ile y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini tartmas\u0131 nedeniyle oynakl\u0131k yaratabilir. Faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir; bu da g\u00f6reli de\u011fer (relative value) i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131r. Bu nedenle, konut ve finans sekt\u00f6rlerindeki daha iyimser pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131za kar\u015f\u0131 bir koruma (hedge) olarak Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de mevcut konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta %3,2 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: Ekonomide g\u00fc\u00e7, Fed\u2019in erken faiz indirimi ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. \u201cDaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosunda SOFR sat, homebuilder al, QQQ put ile korun.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49596\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}