USD\/CAD, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n son zirvelere yak\u0131n seyrini korumas\u0131yla birlikte y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana olu\u015fan i\u015flem band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede yatay kald\u0131. Scotiabank, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki gev\u015feme ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n olumlu seyriyle ko\u015fullar\u0131n en az\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir CAD toparlanmas\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtirken, yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) karar\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131ca etkinlik riski olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Banka, spot kurun \u201cadil de\u011fer\u201d tahmininin yakla\u015f\u0131k iki b\u00fcy\u00fck rakam \u00fczerinde bulundu\u011funu belirterek bu tahmini 1,3758 seviyesine koydu ve bant zirvesinin son yeniden testinin CAD taraf\u0131nda \u201cucuzdan al\u0131m\u201d ilgisi yaratmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Ge\u00e7 martta g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,3967 zirvesine dikkat \u00e7eken Scotiabank, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri ge\u00e7erli olan tavan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 daha net bir tepe\/tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f kan\u0131t\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Banka, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ilk deste\u011fi 1,3925, bir sonraki seviyeyi 1,3870 olarak verirken, 1,39+ b\u00f6lgesini CAD al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in orta vadeli de\u011fer sunan bir alan olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana olu\u015fan band\u0131n \u00fcst k\u0131sm\u0131na yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede yatay seyirle de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n olumlu tarafa e\u011filmesiyle, en az\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma i\u00e7in ko\u015fullar elveri\u015fli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Spot fiyat\u0131n 1,3758 seviyesindeki adil de\u011fer tahminimizin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, paritenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131, enflasyondaki gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en hafta gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatarak politika faizini 25 baz puan indirip %4,75\u2019e \u00e7ekti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yaz boyunca faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fc destekledi. Ancak bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi, paritede ilave y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s 2026 T\u00dcFE verisi enflasyonun %2,7\u2019ye geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6stererek BoC\u2019nin hamlesini gerek\u00e7elendirdi. \u00d6te yandan ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan son tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi 272 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek Fed\u2019in \u201csab\u0131rl\u0131\u201d kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in zemin olu\u015fturdu. Bu makro ayr\u0131\u015fma mevcut y\u00fcksek kur seviyesini desteklese de, ABD verilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 halinde bir d\u00fczeltme i\u00e7in ortam haz\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
1,3900 \u00fczerindeki seviyelerin, Kanada dolar\u0131 almak isteyenler i\u00e7in orta vadede iyi bir de\u011fer sundu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc koruyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda bu, 1,3975 \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bant tavan\u0131n\u0131n korunaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla prim toplamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan 1,3970 civar\u0131na neredeyse nokta at\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeniden test, sat\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat sinyalleri ABD dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filime i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2017\u2019de benzer politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemleri \u00f6nce kurda bir \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rama\u201d, ard\u0131ndan belirgin bir d\u00fczeltmeyle sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tepe olu\u015fumu kan\u0131t\u0131 gerekse de, mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerle benzerlik g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, paritenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ilk sinyal olarak 1,3925\u2019teki ara deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 izlemesi gerekiyor. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na sarkma, 1,3870 b\u00f6lgesindeki daha \u00f6nemli deste\u011fe do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda beklenenden daha \u015fahin bir mesaj vermesi olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD bant tavan\u0131nda yatay: Scotiabank\u2019a g\u00f6re kur adil de\u011ferin (1,3758) \u00fczerinde \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzad\u0131\u201d. BoC karar\u0131 kritik. 1,3925 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,3870\u2019e d\u00fczeltme. 1,39+ CAD al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49594","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49594"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49594\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}