Euro, daha geni\u015f bir USD y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle paralel bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flad\u0131; bu durum, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenip Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (ECB) daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa itmi\u015f olsa da de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Man\u015fet enflasyon May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Her iki g\u00f6sterge de hedefin \u00fczerinde kalarak kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011fa ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
National Bank Canada, EUR\/USD\u2019yi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak dolar d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc \u00fczerinden de\u011ferlendiriyor; bankan\u0131n y\u0131l sonu hedefi 1,19, mevcut seviye ise 1,16. Banka, Fed fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden ayarlanma s\u00fcrecinin tamamlanmas\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yeniden bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 e\u011filiminin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla dolar\u0131n gev\u015femesini; bunun da tek para biriminin kademeli bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 s\u00fcz\u00fclmesine imkan vermesini bekliyor. Ancak, Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi daha ikna edici bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmedik\u00e7e veya k\u0131sa vadeli faiz farklar\u0131 dolar aleyhine daha fazla a\u00e7\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve kademeli olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u015eahin bir ECB, \u00f6zellikle piyasalar yeniden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma riskini belirli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlarsa, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; ancak Fed de \u015fahin y\u00f6nde yeniden fiyatlan\u0131rsa bu, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ralli i\u00e7in yeterli olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019daki son zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, esas olarak ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin bir hikayesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu May\u0131s\u2019ta %3,2\u2019ye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olsa da dolar, ge\u00e7en ay 250 binin \u00fczerinde istihdam ekleyen son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan destekleniyor. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019i zor bir pozisyonda tutuyor ve \u015fimdilik Euro\u2019nun potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, EUR\/USD i\u00e7in 1,19 y\u0131l sonu hedefimize giden yolun kademeli ve dalgal\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6rne\u011fin A\u011fustos veya Eyl\u00fcl vadeli olarak 1,17 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m (call) al\u0131p 1,19 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m satmak suretiyle uzun call spread pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu strateji, kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken dolar rallisinin beklenmedik bi\u00e7imde yeniden h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 halinde riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin tonu parite i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturmal\u0131. 1,14 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satman\u0131n prim toplamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; zira belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde dahi merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 sa\u011flam destek seviyeleri yaratabiliyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, yakla\u015fan ABD makro verilerine ba\u011fl\u0131. \u00d6zellikle \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %3\u2019\u00fcn inatla \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in bir sonraki T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) raporunu yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Enflasyon verilerinde beklentinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nmas\u0131, Euro\u2019nun 1,19 hedefimize do\u011fru hareketini h\u0131zland\u0131rabilecek ba\u015fl\u0131ca kataliz\u00f6r olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar nedeniyle zay\u0131f; Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu %3,2 ile hedef \u00fcst\u00fcnde. National Bank Canada y\u0131l sonu EUR\/USD 1,19 bekliyor (\u015fimdi 1,16). Kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015f, Fed\/ABD verileri belirleyici; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49593"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49593\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}