Rabobank\u2019tan Jane Foley, Nikkei\u2019nin haberlerinin Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda piyasa beklentileriyle uyumlu \u015fekilde 25 baz puan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidece\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fini, ayr\u0131ca Nisan 2027\u2019den itibaren Japon devlet tahvili (JGB) al\u0131m program\u0131ndaki azalt\u0131m\u0131 (tapering) duraklatma se\u00e7ene\u011fini de de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. BoJ, tapering nedeniyle o tarihe kadar JGB varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %16\u201317 d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini belirtmi\u015fti; gazete ise politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n azalt\u0131mlar\u0131 bu seviyede durdurmay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme alabilece\u011fini aktard\u0131. Zemin, JGB piyasas\u0131nda BoJ\u2019un enflasyon konusunda e\u011frinin gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feleri ve mali te\u015fvikin tahvil arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fi riskini de i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
Daha istikrarl\u0131 bir JGB piyasas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de tapering\u2019e ara verilmesi piyasaya arz\u0131n keskin bi\u00e7imde artmamas\u0131 ko\u015fuluyla dengeye ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in daha fazla zaman tan\u0131rsa, JPY volatilite ataklar\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir. Foley, tapering\u2019e ara verilmesi halinde JPY\u2019ye deste\u011fin Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 patikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik y\u00f6nlendirmeye daha fazla dayanabilece\u011fini, ancak \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n bu patikay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Rabobank\u2019\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k projeksiyonu, BoJ\u2019un bu y\u0131l ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na gidece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla USD\/JPY\u2019nin 158 olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015fan politika toplant\u0131s\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; son haberler 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yolda oldu\u011funa g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde i\u015faret ediyor. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS) \u015fu anda b\u00f6yle bir hamle i\u00e7in %85 olas\u0131l\u0131k fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklendi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. As\u0131l odak, bankan\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesi (forward guidance) ve yeni politika sinyalleri olacak.<\/p>\n
Yeni bir unsur ise BoJ\u2019un Nisan 2027 itibar\u0131yla devlet tahvili stokunu azaltmay\u0131 duraklatabilece\u011fi fikri. Bu ad\u0131m JGB piyasas\u0131na istikrar kazand\u0131rmay\u0131 ve Yen\u2019de keskin, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez hareketlerin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmay\u0131 hedefler. Bu haberle birlikte USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin bu sabah %8,0\u2019in alt\u0131na indi\u011fini zaten g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un tahvil azalt\u0131m\u0131na ara verece\u011fi sinyalini vermesi, Yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na daha fazla dayanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Ancak Brent petrol\u00fcn son bir ayd\u0131r varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131na neden olan \u0130ran\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor. Bu da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n agresif bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryoyu daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck; 2023 ve 2024\u2019te Getiri E\u011frisi Kontrol\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn (YCC) yava\u015f \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan piyasadaki dalgalanma hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019un, niyetlerini \u00e7ok \u00f6nceden i\u015faret ederek bu volatilitenin tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu da kademeli ve iyi ileti\u015fimi yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin tercih edildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu durum, USD\/JPY i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fi, ancak volatilitenin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin beklendi\u011fi karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Bu da sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan ziyade yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc istikrarl\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015ftan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejilere i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/JPY i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k 158 tahminimizi koruyoruz; ancak art\u0131k oraya gidi\u015fin daha d\u00fczenli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ\u2019de kritik hafta: Nikkei\u2019ye g\u00f6re 25 baz puan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 masada; 2027\u2019den JGB tapering durabilir. OIS %85 fiyatl\u0131yor. JPY volatilitesi d\u00fc\u015ferken Rabobank USD\/JPY 3 ayda 158 bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47826,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49592","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49592"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49592\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47826"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}