\u00c7in\u2019in ticaret fazlas\u0131, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda Nisan\u2019daki 84,82 milyar ABD dolar\u0131ndan 105,43 milyar ABD dolar\u0131na geni\u015fledi; art\u0131\u015f, yapay zek\u00e2 ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ekipman \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ihracatta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %19,4\u2019l\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fle desteklendi. Bilgisayar ve par\u00e7alar\u0131 sevkiyat\u0131 %66 s\u0131\u00e7rarken, entegre devrelerin yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 iki kattan fazla artt\u0131. Veriler, \u00c7in yuan\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 gelir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn destekleyici oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Para birimindeki son yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme ise, politika bile\u015fiminin hedefli gev\u015femeyi daha s\u0131k\u0131 sermaye kontrolleri ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck PBoC fixing\u2019lerinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesiyle birle\u015ftirmesi nedeniyle duraksad\u0131. D\u00fczenleyiciler, bankalar\u0131n SOFR\u2019nin \u00fczerinde faiz oranlar\u0131na izin vererek USD mevduat toplamas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etti; ama\u00e7, ihracat gelirlerinin offshore\u2019da kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayarak do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale olmaks\u0131z\u0131n yuan\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 durmak. S\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi ak\u0131\u015flara y\u00f6nelik denetimler de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor; yasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 offshore i\u015flemlere y\u00f6nelik yeniden ba\u015flat\u0131lan operasyonlar, lisanss\u0131z arac\u0131 kurumlara daha s\u0131k\u0131 g\u00f6zetim ve uyumsuz hesaplar\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 bu kapsamda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki 105,4 milyar dolarl\u0131k dev ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131, yuan\u0131n temel dinamiklerindeki g\u00fcc\u00fcn net bir sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu tablo, bilgisayar ve par\u00e7a ihracat\u0131ndaki etkileyici %66\u2019l\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramayla b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde besleniyor ve yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 yeni bir ihracat d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda belirgin bir yuan zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alman\u0131n aleyhine bir e\u011filim olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, resmi politikan\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011ferlenmeye aktif bi\u00e7imde kar\u015f\u0131 durdu\u011funu ve para biriminin g\u00fcc\u00fcne bir tavan olu\u015fturdu\u011funu kabul etmek gerekiyor. PBoC\u2019nin g\u00fcnl\u00fck USD\/CNY fixing\u2019ini \u00e7ok yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; zira kurum, tempi y\u00f6netmek amac\u0131yla fixing\u2019i piyasa beklentilerinden tutarl\u0131 \u015fekilde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyelerde belirliyor. Bir ayl\u0131k USD\/CNH opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite %3,5\u2019e kadar geriledi; bu da piyasan\u0131n, otoritelerin istikrar\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131yla koruyaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Temel destek ile resmi diren\u00e7 dinami\u011fi bir araya geldi\u011finde, volatilite satman\u0131n en ihtiyatl\u0131 strateji oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. USD\/CNY paritesinde k\u0131sa strangle gibi opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; bu t\u00fcr yap\u0131lar, kurun dar ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir bantta kalmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, otoritelerin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 engelledi\u011fi s\u00fcrece opsiyon primlerindeki zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00f6nl\u00fc ancak risk y\u00f6netimi g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u015flem i\u00e7in kredi spread\u2019lerine de bak\u0131yoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD\/CNY\u2019de bear put spread, yuan\u0131n yava\u015f ve kademeli bir \u015fekilde de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131ndan faydalan\u0131rken azami riski net bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n verir. Bu, yuan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn yukar\u0131 oldu\u011fu, ancak h\u0131z\u0131n politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan bilin\u00e7li \u015fekilde yava\u015f ve kontroll\u00fc tutulaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015ea\u015f\u0131rtan tablo: \u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s ticaret fazlas\u0131 105,4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; AI ihracat\u0131 %19,4 artt\u0131. Bu, yuana temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor; ancak PBoC fixing\u2019i, USD mevduat te\u015fviki ve kontroller de\u011ferlenmeye tavan koyuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49792,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49591"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49591\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49792"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}