ABD Redbook Endeksi (Y\u0131ll\u0131k) 5 Haziran\u2019da sona eren haftada \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %9 seviyesinden %9,1\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, Redbook \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn izledi\u011fi y\u0131ll\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir h\u0131zlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veri, endeksin bir \u00f6nceki haftaya k\u0131yasla y\u00fcksek seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasalar, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131ndaki e\u011filimlere dair zamanl\u0131 bir g\u00f6sterge sundu\u011fu i\u00e7in, %9,1\u2019lik y\u0131ll\u0131k oran\u0131n\u0131n takip eden a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda korunup korunmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek.<\/p>\n
Redbook Endeksi\u2019nin teyit etti\u011fi t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131ndaki s\u00fcregelen g\u00fcc\u00fc, ekonominin \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nm\u0131\u015f\u201d \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep enflasyon \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rarak, Federal Rezerv\u2019in politika gev\u015femesini g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Son T\u00dcFE verisinin inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde %3,5 gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyede gelmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir Fed duru\u015fu riskini yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu da, mevcut fiyatlamaya k\u0131yasla k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentimizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f do\u011frultusunda, beklenen faizlerde y\u00fckseli\u015ften fayda sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde Eyl\u00fcl vadeli SOFR vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f pozisyonu almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, enflasyonist bir ortamda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketici verileri kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011finde, Fed\u2019in piyasalar\u0131n ilk etapta \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha agresif ad\u0131mlar atmak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu \u201ciyi haber k\u00f6t\u00fc haber\u201d senaryosu, muhtemelen artan oynakl\u0131k ve S&P 500 i\u00e7in potansiyel bir bask\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Faiz korkular\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz. S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn son \u00e7eyrekte %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131 da geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rarak bu stratejiyi destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa i\u00e7inde sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Harcamalardaki do\u011frudan g\u00fc\u00e7ten yararlanmak i\u00e7in T\u00fcketici \u0130htiyari Harcamalar ETF\u2019si (XLY) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ederken, faizlere duyarl\u0131 Teknoloji ETF\u2019si (XLK) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. Bu \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem, temel ekonomik trendden faydalanmay\u0131 hedeflerken, daha y\u00fcksek faizlerin yaratabilece\u011fi daha geni\u015f piyasa riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, \u015fahin bir Fed ile di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi beklenebilir. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan gelen son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, yeniden faiz indirimi yap\u0131labilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik bir isteklili\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor ve bu da ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc yans\u0131tmak \u00fczere ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla uzun pozisyon ba\u015flat\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Redbook\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %9,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: t\u00fcketici h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Bu tablo enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutup Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fini uzatabilir; SOFR sat\u0131\u015f, VIX call, XLY call-XLK put ve DXY call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49590"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49590\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}