Royal Bank of Canada ekonomisti Claire Fan, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019sinde son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen daralmalar\u0131n resesyona kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Kanada\u2019daki resesyonlar\u0131 tarihlendiren C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council da bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc payla\u015f\u0131yor. De\u011ferlendirme, oynak n\u00fcfus dinamiklerinin geleneksel GSYH okumalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7arp\u0131tabilece\u011fi ve hanehalk\u0131 d\u00fczeyindeki ko\u015fullar\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 GSYH\u2019ye daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmesi gerekti\u011fi fikrine dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fan, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki sert dalgalanmalara i\u015faret ederek, GSYH\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclen son iki \u00e7eyre\u011fin, 1950\u2019lerden bu yana kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7en ilk n\u00fcfus azal\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi\u011fini belirtiyor. Bu ili\u015fkinin art\u0131k tersine d\u00f6nmesiyle birlikte, man\u015fet GSYH\u2019nin altta yatan ko\u015fullar\u0131 oldu\u011fundan zay\u0131f g\u00f6steriyor olabilece\u011fini; ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stergelerin ise 2023 ba\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015flayan yumu\u015fak d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan erken a\u015fama bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Makale, bir Yapay Zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 man\u015fet GSYH verilerinin ima etti\u011finin aksine, Kanada ekonomisinin erken a\u015fama bir toparlanma i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. N\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki sert dalgalanmalar, hanehalk\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ek tabloyu bozdu. Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na trendler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2025\u2019te ba\u015flayan yumu\u015fak d\u00f6nemin sona ermekte oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, 5 Haziran 2026 tarihli son istihdam raporuyla da destekleniyor: 45.000 ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015ft\u0131. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 da ge\u00e7en hafta politika faizini %4,25\u2019te sabit tutarken ekonomide \u201cdayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa dair ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan i\u015faretler\u201d oldu\u011funu not etti. Bu da piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011fi \u00fczere bankan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda faiz indirimine gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, yak\u0131n vadeli faiz indirimi beklentilerinin yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. 2026 sonuna kadar daha az faiz indirimi fiyatlayan CORRA swap\u2019lar\u0131 gibi t\u00fcrev enstr\u00fcmanlara bakarak daha yatay hatta yukar\u0131 e\u011fimli bir getiri e\u011frisi i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 g\u00fcvercin tondan n\u00f6tr duru\u015fa d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterme e\u011filiminde oluyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik anlat\u0131n\u0131n resesyon endi\u015felerinden istikrarl\u0131 toparlanmaya kaymas\u0131yla Kanada dolar\u0131nda da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyel g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. CAD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread yap\u0131lar\u0131 uzun pozisyon almak i\u00e7in etkili yollar olabilir. Halihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7450 USD seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren para birimi, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc hen\u00fcz tam olarak fiyatlam\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Kanada hisse senetleri i\u00e7in de yap\u0131c\u0131; \u00f6zellikle finansallar ve iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim gibi i\u00e7 talebe duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde. Geni\u015f piyasa maruziyeti i\u00e7in S&P\/TSX 60 Endeksi vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu durum, toparlanman\u0131n ilk sinyallerinin Kanada borsas\u0131nda uzun soluklu bir ralliye zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2015 sonras\u0131 petrol fiyat \u015foku d\u00f6nemini and\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kanada\u2019da GSYH daralmas\u0131 resesyon de\u011fil: dalgal\u0131 n\u00fcfus verisi man\u015feti \u00e7arp\u0131t\u0131yor. Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 GSYH toparlanma sinyali verirken istihdam s\u00fcrprizi ve BoC\u2019nin duru\u015fu faiz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 sorgulat\u0131yor. CAD ve TSX60\u2019ta y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeli var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49588","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49588"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49588\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49588"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49588"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49588"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}