BNP Paribas stratejistleri, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman olarak yeniden fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve piyasa \u00e7alkant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde euronun giderek k\u00fcresel bir g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131k gibi de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Banka, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (AMB) euro cinsinden varl\u0131klara daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebe i\u015faret eden \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na ve Alman Bund tahvillerindeki \u201cconvenience yield\u201din y\u00fckselerek Euro B\u00f6lgesi genelindeki finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Stratejistler ayr\u0131ca Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n sanayi dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, hizmetlerdeki g\u00fc\u00e7 ve teknolojideki ivmeye, bunun yan\u0131nda politika ve jeopolitik zemindeki iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Alman Bund\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n convenience yield\u2019inin 2023\u201325 d\u00f6neminde \u00fc\u00e7 kat artarak 30 baz puandan 90 baz puana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten ekip, di\u011fer kamu ve \u00f6zel euro tahvillerinin Bund referans\u0131yla fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu kayman\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi genelinde fonlama ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini savunuyor.<\/p>\n
Son k\u00fcresel piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131 ortam\u0131nda, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n bir istikrar liman\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun da euroyu giderek daha cazip bir varl\u0131k haline getirdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Para birimi, ge\u00e7mi\u015fe k\u0131yasla daha fazla g\u00fcvenli liman gibi davran\u0131yor; bu da riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak gerileme e\u011filimi g\u00f6stermesinden bir sapmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in portf\u00f6ylerimizi nas\u0131l konumland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmemiz gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Trader\u2019lar\u0131n EUR\/USD paritesinde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc (call) opsiyonlara bakmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz; vade olarak temmuz sonu ve a\u011fustos hedefleniyor. Asya\u2019daki son jeopolitik gerilimler, geleneksel olarak beklendi\u011fi gibi yaln\u0131zca ABD Hazine tahvillerine de\u011fil, Avrupa varl\u0131klar\u0131na da sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Haziran 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131na ait veriler bunu do\u011fruluyor: euro cinsinden fonlara giri\u015fler h\u0131zlan\u0131rken, ABD hisse senedi fonlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik arka plan bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor: May\u0131s ay\u0131 S&P Global Euro B\u00f6lgesi Bile\u015fik PMI, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde diren\u00e7li 53,5 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ABD\u2019den gelen son veriler daha zay\u0131f seyretti; i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 hafif y\u00fckselirken t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni geriledi. Bu temel ayr\u0131\u015fma, euronun g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca faiz farklar\u0131 euronun lehine hareket ediyor. Fed\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemleri i\u00e7in olas\u0131 g\u00fcvercin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe sinyal vermesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k AMB, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fini belirterek daha istikrarl\u0131 bir duru\u015f korudu. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltarak, euroya k\u0131yasla dolar ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (hold) daha az cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Alman Bund\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer \u00fclke tahvillerine g\u00f6re priminin y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti\u011fini ve bunun g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131k olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Alman 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund\u2019lar ile ABD Hazine tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131 yaln\u0131zca son bir ayda 15 baz puandan fazla darald\u0131. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek bor\u00e7 piyasas\u0131ndaki bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, t\u00fcm Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir zemin sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, euronun belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 enerji krizinden kayda de\u011fer bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n h\u0131zlanan ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc ve \u00e7e\u015fitlenen enerji kaynaklar\u0131, sanayi dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Bu nedenle, piyasa stresinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde euronun zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini beklemeliyiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar sars\u0131l\u0131rken rota Avrupa\u2019ya d\u00f6n\u00fcyor: BNP Paribas, euronun giderek \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d gibi fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor. Bund convenience yield\u2019indeki s\u0131\u00e7rama, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc PMI ve daralan faiz farklar\u0131 euroyu destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49584"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49584\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}