{"id":49582,"date":"2026-06-09T15:35:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T15:35:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/dolar-rallisi-tufe-ve-fomcnin-fed-faiz-gorunumunu-yeniden-fiyatlamasiyla-100-seviyesine-yakin-duraksadi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-09T15:35:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T15:35:58","slug":"dolar-rallisi-tufe-ve-fomcnin-fed-faiz-gorunumunu-yeniden-fiyatlamasiyla-100-seviyesine-yakin-duraksadi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dolar-rallisi-tufe-ve-fomcnin-fed-faiz-gorunumunu-yeniden-fiyatlamasiyla-100-seviyesine-yakin-duraksadi\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar Rallisi, T\u00dcFE ve FOMC\u2019nin Fed Faiz G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Yeniden Fiyatlamas\u0131yla 100 Seviyesine Yak\u0131n Duraksad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD dolar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin azalmas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 90 dolar\/varil seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle birlikte Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 100,00 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan duraksad\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden ABD para politikas\u0131na d\u00f6nerken, yakla\u015fan kritik yurti\u00e7i veriler ve gelecek politika sinyalleri \u00f6ncesinde Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d \u015fekilde yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Bir sonraki kritik s\u0131nav yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s ay\u0131 ABD T\u00dcFE verisi. 17 Haziran\u2019daki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ise, Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh d\u00f6neminde Fed\u2019in enerji fiyat \u015fokuna nas\u0131l tepki verece\u011fi dahil olmak \u00fczere politika patikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri \u015fekillendirmesi bekleniyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi, Fed\u2019in en az\u0131ndan Haziran FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda gev\u015feme e\u011filimini (easing bias) terk etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu haber, yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 kullan\u0131larak haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Dolar Endeksi, ABD T\u00dcFE ve FOMC Beklenirken Duraks\u0131yor<\/h3>\n

ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son rallisinin Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde 100,00 seviyesi civar\u0131nda solukland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Jeopolitik tansiyonun bir miktar d\u00fc\u015fmesi dolar\u0131n kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlasa da, Federal Rezerv\u2019in daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fi beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dip destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sekiz g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki \u00f6nemli makroekonomik g\u00fcndem \u00f6ncesinde d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda gergin bir denge yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisiyle k\u0131sa vadeli kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. Piyasa beklentisi ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; ancak %0,5\u2019e yak\u0131n daha s\u0131cak bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 100,00 direncinin \u00fczerine rahatl\u0131kla ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan beklenen hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in UUP gibi d\u00f6viz ETF\u2019lerinde straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

FOMC Toplant\u0131s\u0131, Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k Ge\u00e7i\u015fi ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

17 Haziran FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131, \u00f6zellikle Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ilk b\u00fcy\u00fck politika ileti\u015fimi olmas\u0131 nedeniyle pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ana g\u00fcndem maddesi. Tarihsel olarak yeni bir Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131 piyasada yeni bir ton olu\u015fturur; bu t\u00fcr ge\u00e7i\u015fler \u00f6ncesindeki haftada 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu nedenle, ge\u00e7en haftaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisinin de i\u015faret etti\u011fi \u00fczere, \u00f6nceki gev\u015feme e\u011filiminden \u015fahin y\u00f6ne olas\u0131 bir kaymay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dip deste\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmenin yaratabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri olas\u0131 al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinin varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolara do\u011fru gerilemesi enflasyon endi\u015felerini k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli yumu\u015fatabilir; ancak Fed\u2019in ana oda\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. FOMC karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk profiliyle dolar uzun pozisyonu almak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara USD\/JPY paritesinde bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Dolar Endeksi 100 direncinde soluklan\u0131rken jeopolitik riskler azal\u0131yor, petrol 90\u2019a \u00e7ekiliyor. Odak May\u0131s ABD T\u00dcFE ve 17 Haziran FOMC; \u015fahin Fed beklentisi dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49582","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49582"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49582\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49582"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49582"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49582"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}