National Bank of Canada, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde en zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6steren rezerv para birimi oldu\u011funu belirtirken, USD\/CAD\u2019in yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,39\u2019a geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bu seviyenin en son Mart sonunda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen hisse senedi sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade ediyor. Banka, hareketi g\u00f6rece daha zay\u0131f reel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ve negatif Kanada\u2013ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz fark\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor; tam zamanl\u0131 istihdam rekor seviyede olsa bile bu dinamik kur \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Emtialar da fiyatlamay\u0131 \u015fekillendiriyor. Petrol Kanada i\u00e7in \u00f6nemini koruyor, ancak banka mevcut konjonkt\u00fcrde marjinal belirleyicinin alt\u0131n oldu\u011funu savunuyor; de\u011ferli maden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde ve son rekor zirvesinin \u015fimdi %17\u2019den fazla alt\u0131nda. Banka bu dinami\u011fi CAD zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendiriyor. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in USD\/CAD\u2019i 1,35 seviyesinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir CAD toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n bu yaz Ottawa\u2019n\u0131n ABD ile bir ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; jeopolitik riskler ile Kanadal\u0131 \u015firketlerin ABD pazar\u0131na eri\u015fiminin ise belirsizlik kaynaklar\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini ve USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,39 civar\u0131nda seyrederken en zay\u0131f rezerv para birimi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ekonomik tablo da bunu destekliyor: Kanada\u2019n\u0131n 2026 1\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ge\u00e7en hafta %0,5 gibi zay\u0131f bir seviyede a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken, ABD\u2019de %2,8 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, trendin s\u00fcrmesini beklememizin temel nedenlerinden biri.<\/p>\n
Kanada ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 \u201cloonie\u201d i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131. Bu sabah itibar\u0131yla ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi, Kanada muadilinin tam 65 baz puan \u00fczerinde; bu da getiri aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, 2017-2019 d\u00f6nemine benzer \u015fekilde bu denli geni\u015f negatif spread, Kanada dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
Mevcut piyasada alt\u0131n da petrol\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7erek kur i\u00e7in daha kritik bir s\u00fcr\u00fckleyici haline geldi. K\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n, son rekor zirvesinden %17\u2019den fazla gerileyerek ons ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.450 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve destek bulmakta zorlan\u0131yor. Alt\u0131nda ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, USD\/CAD\u2019de daha yukar\u0131 bir seviyeye do\u011frudan yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yaz sonuna vadeli USD\/CAD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) almak, \u00f6zellikle yeni bir ABD ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlikler varken olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 harekete kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6nelik makul bir strateji gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u201cLoonie\u201dde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin, ticaret m\u00fczakerelerinde kayda de\u011fer bir k\u0131r\u0131lma gerektirmesi muhtemel; bunun da yak\u0131n vadede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini beklemiyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Loonie dipte mi? National Bank, CAD\u2019nin en zay\u0131f rezerv para oldu\u011funu, USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,39\u2019a d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor; zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, negatif 2Y faiz fark\u0131, alt\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bask\u0131 kuruyor. Y\u0131l sonu 1,35; toparlanma ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49578"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49578\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}