Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi; 4.360 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalan y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ivme kaybetmesinin ard\u0131ndan 4.268 dolar civar\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k iki bu\u00e7uk ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara verilen aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanma metale belirgin bir destek sa\u011flayamazken, daha zay\u0131f ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na ra\u011fmen y\u00fckselen ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130srail ve \u0130ran gergin bir ate\u015fkes s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, \u0130srail\u2019in Sur\u2019a (Tyre) d\u00fczenledi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131da sekiz ki\u015fi hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti; Donald Trump, Tahran ile g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131laca\u011f\u0131ndan emin oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Piyasalar ise ge\u00e7en haftaki tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika beklentilerini peki\u015ftirmesinin ard\u0131ndan, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verisine odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD 4.337 dolar civar\u0131nda kotasyon g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ge\u00e7en cuma 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131ktan sonra a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini korudu. Fiyat hareketi d\u00fc\u015fen kanal\u0131n taban\u0131na yak\u0131n seyrederken, 4.370 dolar civar\u0131 diren\u00e7; 4.268 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 4.220 dolar seviyeleri destek olarak izleniyor. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye ise 4.100 dolar civar\u0131nda. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131f kalmaya devam ediyor; RSI 30\u2019lu seviyelerin ortas\u0131nda, MACD ise belirgin bi\u00e7imde negatif b\u00f6lgede. Toparlanma i\u00e7in 4.350\u20134.365 band\u0131n\u0131n ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.445 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor; bu durumda 4.540 dolar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Haziran 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci haftas\u0131na girerken alt\u0131n\u0131n 2.320 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131nda tutundu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fiyat \u00fczerindeki ana bask\u0131, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvilin yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,4 seviyesinde seyretti\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinden geliyor; bu durum, getiri sa\u011flamayan bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n\u0131 daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu dinamik, \u015fimdilik anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeyi fiilen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu bask\u0131, piyasan\u0131n Fed politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileriyle do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Ge\u00e7en cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve ekonominin may\u0131sta 272 bin istihdam yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam raporu, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Parasal gev\u015femedeki bu gecikmenin ABD Dolar\u0131 ve tahvil getirilerini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutarak k\u0131sa vadede alt\u0131n i\u00e7in ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturmas\u0131 muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem perspektifinde kritik teknik seviyeleri izliyoruz. Olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinde, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 2.345 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama yak\u0131n\u0131nda belirgin bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenebilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 tarafta ise 2.285 dolar civar\u0131nda olu\u015fan son destek kilit seviye konumunda; bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 2.200 dolar b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru bir hareketi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in temkinli ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli bir duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. 2.285 dolar destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n, daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in net ve riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, piyasada beklenmedik bir haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ani bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ve ralli ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 zararlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. Y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayan ancak sert bir hareket \u00f6ng\u00f6ren yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, uzun strangle stratejisini de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu strateji, veri sonras\u0131 her iki y\u00f6nde de keskin bir hareketten faydalanmak amac\u0131yla vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir al\u0131m (call) ve vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu birlikte sat\u0131n almay\u0131 i\u00e7erir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek zeminini de not etmek gerekiyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde rezervlerine net 290 ton alt\u0131n ekleyerek tarihi al\u0131m trendini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu unsur k\u0131sa vadeli fiyatlamay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmese de, daha dramatik bir fiyat \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek sa\u011flam bir uzun vadeli taban sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda tansiyon y\u00fckseliyor: XAU\/USD 4.268$ civar\u0131nda, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama alt\u0131 bask\u0131da. Tahvil getirileri y\u00fcksek, Fed s\u0131k\u0131; g\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\u2019de. 4.370$ diren\u00e7, 4.220$ destek; volatilite artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47752,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49577","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49577"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49577\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49577"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49577"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49577"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}