Macaristan\u2019da may\u0131s T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,8\u2019de kalarak piyasadaki %2,2 beklentisinin ve Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (NBH) mart enflasyon raporundaki %3 tahmininin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Veri, nisan se\u00e7imlerinden bu yana i\u00e7erdeki dezenflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne oda\u011f\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor; bu d\u00f6nemde keskin kur de\u011ferlenmesi ve fiyat kalkanlar\u0131, daha enflasyonist k\u00fcresel ortama ra\u011fmen enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, haziran ay\u0131ndaki NBH gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc giderek \u201ctam fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirimle politika faizinin %6,00\u2019a \u00e7ekilmesi beklenirken, y\u0131l geneli i\u00e7in 75 bp\u2019lik toplam gev\u015feme fiyatlan\u0131yor. FX taraf\u0131nda EUR\/HUF 355 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 bozulsa da yatay seyrini korurken, indirim beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e y\u0131l ortas\u0131 i\u00e7in 350 seviyesi g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131yor. Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na iki hafta var; ancak hafta sonu Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 dahil olmak \u00fczere d\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar h\u00e2l\u00e2 de\u011fi\u015febilir.<\/p>\n
Macaristan\u2019\u0131n kendine \u00f6zg\u00fc dezenflasyon hik\u00e2yesinin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz; may\u0131s enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8 ile NBH\u2019nin %3 hedefinin hemen alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu zay\u0131f okuma, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne devam edece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. Piyasa bunu \u00f6nceden fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, forintte son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki hafta sonraki NBH toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimiyle ana politika faizinin %5,25\u2019e \u00e7ekilmesi neredeyse kesin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Enflasyonun mutedil seyri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar ilave 50-75 baz puanl\u0131k indirimleri do\u011fru \u015fekilde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n son ileti\u015fimi, \u015fimdilik agresif 50 baz puanl\u0131k ad\u0131mlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015flayarak temkinli bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ihtimaline ra\u011fmen EUR\/HUF kayda de\u011fer bir istikrar sergileyerek 392 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti. Bunun temel nedeni, NBH\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc gev\u015feme patikas\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcredir net bi\u00e7imde sinyallenmi\u015f olmas\u0131 ve kur fiyat\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f bulunmas\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, NBH\u2019nin 2023-2024 d\u00f6neminde 500 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde faiz indirdi\u011fi halde forintin g\u00f6rece dar bir bantta kalmas\u0131na benzer bir tabloyu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz indirimlerinin fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fi bu ortam, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. \u0130stikrarl\u0131-g\u00fc\u00e7lenen forint g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden faydalanmak ad\u0131na, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerindeki (out-of-the-money) EUR\/HUF call opsiyonlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n cazip bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, paritenin belirgin bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 k\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla prim toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flar; y\u0131l ortas\u0131 tahminimiz h\u00e2len 388\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Macaristan\u2019da may\u0131s T\u00dcFE beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131: NBH hedefinin alt\u0131nda kalan enflasyon, haziranda 25 bp indirim fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Forint diren\u00e7li; EUR\/HUF\u2019ta 350-388 band\u0131, opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49576\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}