Polonya Ulusal Bankas\u0131, D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi (WGC) verilerine g\u00f6re Nisan ay\u0131nda 14 ton al\u0131m yaparak merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131na liderlik etti ve y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana toplam al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 45 tona ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu tempo, y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u0131ralamada \u00d6zbekistan ve \u00c7in\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mesini sa\u011flad\u0131. Polonya\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131n rezervleri 595 tona y\u00fckselirken, bu miktar toplam rezervlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019una kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte merkez bankalar\u0131, Mart ay\u0131ndaki net sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Nisan\u2019da yeniden net al\u0131m taraf\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, resmi sekt\u00f6r talebine ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Metal 2025\u2019te neredeyse ikiye katlanm\u0131\u015f ve Ocak ay\u0131nda ons ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 5.600 dolar ile t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ancak o tarihten bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %23 gerileyerek 4.300 dolar civar\u0131na indi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle birlikte alt\u0131n, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; Ekim 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez g\u00f6r\u00fclen bu hareket, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD May\u0131s istihdam raporunun piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Son fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc 4.300 dolar civar\u0131na kadar getiren ana unsurun, y\u00fckselen k\u00fcresel tahvil getirileri ve piyasalar\u0131n daha fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam raporu \u2014 310.000 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u2014 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirisini kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde %4,85 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu durum, getiri \u00fcretmeyen bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 yak\u0131n vadede maliyetli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, mevcut pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak veya 4.000 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayabilmek i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bir di\u011fer uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z strateji ise, prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla \u201czarar-kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak; zira Fed\u2019in Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa \u015fu anda %75 olas\u0131l\u0131kla bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da alt\u0131n i\u00e7in r\u00fczg\u00e2ra kar\u015f\u0131 (headwind) etkisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye devam edecek.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle Polonya\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u0131lki 45 tonluk al\u0131m\u0131yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 fiziki talebi yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Bu istikrarl\u0131 al\u0131m, piyasada \u00f6nemli bir taban olu\u015fturuyor ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 agresif k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar almaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmam\u0131za neden oluyor. S\u00f6z konusu talep, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi mevcut negatif alg\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tampon i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc makro dinamiklerle y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 aktivitesi aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fki, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k GVZ endeksinde \u015fimdiden 22 seviyesine t\u0131rmand\u0131; biz de her iki y\u00f6nde b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden faydalanabilen straddle gibi stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00f6n konusunda n\u00f6tr kal\u0131rken fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019den olas\u0131 bir \u201cpivot\u201d sinyali veya ekonomik verilerde zay\u0131flama i\u015faretlerini, duru\u015fumuzu de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in tetikleyici olarak izleyece\u011fiz. Tarihsel olarak, piyasalar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunun yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda alt\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans g\u00f6sterebiliyor. Bu nedenle, politikadaki olas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131k amac\u0131yla 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na vadeli uzun vadeli (long-dated) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bi\u00e7imde kademeli art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz ikilem: Polonya Nisan\u2019da 14 tonla al\u0131m lideri, YTD 45 tona \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p rezervi 595 tona ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; ancak Fed faiz beklentisi ve y\u00fckselen getiriler fiyat\u0131 4.300$\u2019a bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49574"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49574\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}