USD\/CAD, d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rarak iki ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 1,39613\u2019ten geri \u00e7ekildi ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda 1,3940 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, \u0130ran ve \u0130srail\u2019in kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurma konusunda anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmeyi izledi. Bu geli\u015fme, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 takiben bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde ilerleme beklentilerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Ancak ate\u015fkesin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair soru i\u015faretleri nedeniyle temkinli duru\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risk, L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki Sur (Tyre) kentinde ya\u015fayanlara sald\u0131r\u0131lar \u00f6ncesinde tahliye uyar\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 ise \u0130ran ve Hizbullah\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n \u201chen\u00fcz bitmedi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi. ABD\u2019de daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verileri enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131rken, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini de peki\u015ftirdi; CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %43\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (bir ay \u00f6nce %14). Piyasalar, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc gelecek \u00dcFE verilerini bekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Kanada Uluslararas\u0131 Mal Ticareti ile Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) kararlar\u0131 izlenecek; faizlerin %2,25\u2019te sabit tutulmas\u0131 bekleniyor. BoC, %1\u20133 enflasyon hedefliyor ve niceliksel gev\u015feme ya da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma da uygulayabiliyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi, CAD i\u00e7in kilit belirleyiciler olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD\u2019deki son geri \u00e7ekilmeyi trend de\u011fi\u015fimi de\u011fil, ge\u00e7ici bir soluklanma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Paritenin 1,39613 zirvesinden gerilemesi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine dair k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli iyimserlikle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Ancak L\u00fcbnan\u2019da tahliye uyar\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu sakinli\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki temel ayr\u0131\u015fma, USD\/CAD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc destekleyen ana unsur olmaya devam ediyor. Ge\u00e7en Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi, 285 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015fla Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Kanada\u2019n\u0131n son GSYH verisi %0,1 ile zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ederek BoC\u2019ye bu hafta faizleri sabit tutmak i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar ve yakla\u015fan kritik makro veriler, oynakl\u0131kta sert bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, ABD enflasyon verileri ve BoC kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar alarak pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. \u0130ki hafta vadeli USD\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k \u015fimdiden %8,2 ile \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6ne ili\u015fkin bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olanlar i\u00e7in 1,3940\u2019a do\u011fru mevcut geri \u00e7ekilmeyi uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturma f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Call spread gibi t\u00fcrev stratejileri kullanmak, 1,4000\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir harekete yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maruziyet sa\u011flarken riski de tan\u0131mlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Orta Do\u011fu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemezli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bu yakla\u015f\u0131m daha temkinli bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunar.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, normalde Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olurdu. Ancak \u015fu a\u015famada bu etki, Fed faiz beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc belirleyicili\u011fi alt\u0131nda g\u00f6lgede kal\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, para politikas\u0131nda belirgin ayr\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla korelasyonu zay\u0131flar; bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fla\u015f: USD\/CAD, ate\u015fkes iyimserli\u011fiyle 1,39613 zirvesinden 1,3940\u2019a \u00e7ekildi. Ancak L\u00fcbnan gerilimi, T\u00dcFE-\u00dcFE ve BoC karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi volalite y\u00fckseliyor; Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi pariteyi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49570","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49570","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49570"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49570\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49570"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49570"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49570"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}