EUR\/CHF, \u0130svi\u00e7re piyasas\u0131 faizlerinin k\u00fcresel hareketlerin gerisinde kalmas\u0131 ve faiz piyasalar\u0131ndaki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle yeniden 0,92 seviyesine do\u011fru toparland\u0131. Piyasalar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10\u201312 ayda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (ECB) \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki belirsizlik s\u00fcrse de bu durum euronun franka kar\u015f\u0131 destek bulmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor.<\/p>\n
Arka planda \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB), d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etme isteklili\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. 30 Haziran\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak birinci \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi verilerinin, son derece sakin ge\u00e7en birka\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan belirgin bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret etmesi bekleniyor. Bu da paritede 0,92 civar\u0131ndaki taban\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir; \u015fahin bir ECB sonucu ise EUR\/CHF\u2019yi 0,93\u2019e do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tarih itibar\u0131yla EUR\/CHF\u2019nin yeniden 0,92 b\u00f6lgesine y\u00f6neldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bunun, \u0130svi\u00e7re faizlerinin k\u00fcresel e\u011filimleri yakalayamamas\u0131yla faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyonun \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 %1,3\u2019e i\u015faret eden son verileri, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki daha inat\u00e7\u0131 %2,5\u2019lik oranla keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor ve merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fma beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Trader\u2019lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve 0,9150\u2019nin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip EUR\/CHF sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 cazip hale getiriyor. SNB\u2019nin frang\u0131 zay\u0131flatmak amac\u0131yla m\u00fcdahale etmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funa dair net duru\u015fu, kur i\u00e7in destekleyici bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Bu m\u00fcdahale tehdidi volatiliteyi etkin bi\u00e7imde t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n primlerini g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek tutmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ana kataliz\u00f6r ECB\u2019nin bir sonraki politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 olacak. Enflasyon hedefin inatla \u00fczerinde seyrederken, gelebilecek herhangi bir \u015fahin mesaj, \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d patikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirebilir. Bu da EUR\/CHF\u2019nin 0,93 seviyesine do\u011fru diren\u00e7 \u00fczerinden y\u00fckselmesini tetikleyebilir; bu hareket, k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131narak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak SNB, frang\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir savunma siciline sahip; en belirgin \u00f6rnek, y\u0131llarca korudu\u011fu 1,20 taban seviyesi. Son raporda 700 milyar \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fan \u00f6nemli d\u00fczeydeki d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin, bu deste\u011fin s\u00fcrmesini sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu tarihsel emsal, 0,92 seviyesinin parite i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin olmaya devam edece\u011fine dair g\u00fcvenimizi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/CHF yeniden 0,92\u2019ye d\u00f6n\u00fcyor: \u0130svi\u00e7re faizleri geride, ECB\u2019den 10\u201312 ayda \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor. SNB m\u00fcdahale sinyali taban\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; \u015fahin ECB, pariteyi 0,93\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49569\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}