USD\/JPY, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f dengesi g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ra\u011fmen yeniden 160 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Japonya\u2019da mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari i\u015flemler fazlas\u0131 nisan ay\u0131nda 4,2 trilyon yene y\u00fckselerek serinin 1996\u2019da ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131; fazla GSYH\u2019nin %5,6\u2019s\u0131 d\u00fczeyinde.<\/p>\n
\u0130yile\u015fme, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m gelirlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra mal ve hizmet ticaretindeki toparlanmay\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Ancak JPY\u2019de yak\u0131n vadeli hareketler, bu temellerden ziyade \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekilleniyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda 164\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Japon Yeni\u2019nin temel olarak de\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in 3,8 trilyon \u00a5 cari fazla a\u00e7\u0131klayarak \u00fcst \u00fcste 15\u2019inci ayda da fazla verildi\u011fini teyit etti. Bu alttaki g\u00fc\u00e7 \u015fimdilik piyasa taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6rmezden geliniyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni zay\u0131flatan ana unsurlar geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskler. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi %4,75\u2019te tutarken Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi yaln\u0131zca %0,25 seviyesinde; bu da carry trade\u2019in JPY \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki son gerilimler Brent petrol\u00fc yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolara ta\u015f\u0131rken, enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkenin para birimi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 da art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7lar kullan\u0131larak pozisyon al\u0131nabilecek net bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli fakt\u00f6rlere odaklanmas\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor; petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda gev\u015feme i\u015fareti veya politika de\u011fi\u015fimi, JPY\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ralli tetikleyebilir. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ila alt\u0131 ay vadeli, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (veya USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilite 12 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan %11,5\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131; bu da do\u011frudan al\u0131mlar\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu nedenle giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ve riski tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in dikey spread\u2019lere bak\u0131lmal\u0131. \u00d6rne\u011fin USD\/JPY 160\/155 put spread al\u0131m\u0131, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 prim harcamas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken kurun temel de\u011fere do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesinden faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n
2023 sonundaki sert kur d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri ve 2022\u2019deki m\u00fcdahaleler, duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Mevcut tablo gerilmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; Yen k\u0131sa vadede daha da zay\u0131flayabilse de d\u00fczeltme niteli\u011finde bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in risk-getiri giderek daha cazip hale geliyor. Bu olas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131nmal\u0131; ancak bunu opsiyon ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetinin y\u00fcksekli\u011fini y\u00f6netebilecek bir yap\u0131 ile yapmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc cari fazla rekor k\u0131rsa da USD\/JPY yeniden 160 \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Faiz fark\u0131, carry trade ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 petrol \u015foku JPY\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; OTM put spread\u2019lerle olas\u0131 d\u00fczeltmeye pozisyon \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49802,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49568"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49568\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}