Alt\u0131n, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n iki ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekilmesinin ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 23 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti. \u0130ran ve \u0130srail, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc birbirlerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurduklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu geli\u015fme k\u00fcl\u00e7eye bir miktar destek sa\u011flasa da, daha geni\u015f Orta Do\u011fu tablosu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan piyasalar temkinli kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve egemenli\u011fin tan\u0131nmas\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki deniz trafi\u011finin kontrol\u00fc, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n hafifletilmesi ve dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi talepler nedeniyle t\u0131kanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu durum jeopolitik risk primini canl\u0131 tutarken, bo\u011fazdaki dar ge\u00e7itten ge\u00e7en sevkiyat\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131 enerji piyasalar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon endi\u015feleri ve Fed dahil daha \u015fahin merkez bankas\u0131 beklentileri, oda\u011f\u0131 faizlere \u00e7evirdi: CME Group FedWatch Tool, y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00f6steriyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerini desteklerken faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00dcFE verilerine \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta, alt\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi; destek $4.270,16 civar\u0131nda. RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 35 seviyesinde ve MACD negatif b\u00f6lgede kal\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da $4.441,10 ve ard\u0131ndan $4.571,21 yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n son zirvelerinden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geri \u00e7ekilmesine ra\u011fmen dar bir kanalda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak durmas\u0131 bir miktar rahatlama sa\u011flasa da, altta yatan gerilimlerin jeopolitik risk i\u00e7in taban olu\u015fturmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Denizcilik risk analistlerinin verilerine g\u00f6re, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en tankerler i\u00e7in sava\u015f riski sigorta primleri son bir ayda %15 artt\u0131; bu art\u0131\u015f, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz kalan ba\u015fl\u0131klara i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n \u00fczerindeki ana bask\u0131, daha agresif bir Fed beklentisinden kaynaklan\u0131yor. ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS), ge\u00e7en hafta May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5 ile beklentilerin bir miktar \u00fczerinde geldi\u011fini bildirdi; bu da endi\u015feleri besledi. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, bu sabah itibar\u0131yla, 9 Haziran 2026\u2019da, CME FedWatch Tool y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %82 g\u00f6steriyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ABD tahvil getirilerini y\u00fcksek tutarken dolar\u0131 da destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek her y\u00fckseli\u015fin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu ortam, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fckselen reel getirilerin zamanla g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc \u00f6ncesindeki s\u00fcrece benzer bir tablo \u00e7iziyor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, beklenen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak veya \u201cbear put spread\u201d gibi stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmek anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali. Daha agresif k\u0131sa pozisyonlara ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce, $4.270 civar\u0131ndaki al\u00e7alan kanal deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareketi izliyoruz. RSI ve MACD gibi g\u00f6stergeler, sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funu ancak piyasan\u0131n derin bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir s\u00fcrpriz y\u00fckseli\u015fte ilk \u00f6nemli test, halihaz\u0131rda $4.441 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olacakt\u0131r. Bu seviyenin yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryomuz i\u00e7in ilk temkin i\u015fareti say\u0131labilir. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bariyer ise $4.571 civar\u0131ndaki \u00fcst kanal s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor; beklenmedik bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesini burada s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma: Dolar gev\u015fese de Fed\u2019in \u015fahin beklentisi ve y\u00fcksek tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. \u0130ran-\u0130srail ate\u015fkesi destek verse de H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; g\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49567"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49567\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}