Alt\u0131n, piyasalar\u0131n daha \u015fahin bir ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) duru\u015funu fiyatlamas\u0131yla 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geriledi; petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015feleri de bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Hareket, fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 4.300 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dengelenmeden \u00f6nce h\u0131zl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikledi; \u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine dair i\u015faretlerle petrol kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri, jeopolitik stres d\u00f6nemlerinde alt\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d cazibesini de azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Geli\u015fen piyasalardaki politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ilave bir risk katman\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Hindistan, ithalat\u0131 dizginlemek amac\u0131yla 13 May\u0131s 2026\u2019dan itibaren ge\u00e7erli olmak \u00fczere alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ithalat vergilerini %6\u2019dan %15\u2019e y\u00fckseltecek. Merkez bankas\u0131 talebinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 beklenirken, baz\u0131 geli\u015fen \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 likiditesi sa\u011flamak ve para birimlerini desteklemek i\u00e7in k\u00fcl\u00e7eyi devreye sokabilir; T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) TRY\u2019yi istikrara kavu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 130 ton alt\u0131n satt\u0131 veya \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 verdi. Bu arka planda OCBC, 2026 sonu tahminini 5.350 ABD$\/ons seviyesinden 5.100 ABD$\/ons\u2019a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken; para birimi de\u011fer kayb\u0131 (debasement), mali riskler ve jeopolitik par\u00e7alanma gibi s\u00fcregelen itici g\u00fc\u00e7lere i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesinin ard\u0131ndan, k\u0131sa vadede bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; s\u00f6z konusu ortalama \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.400 ABD$\/ons civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu teknik k\u0131r\u0131lma, beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen ekonomik verilerin ard\u0131ndan Fed beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131yla tetiklendi. Daha y\u00fcksek tahvil getirileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ortam\u0131, k\u0131ymetli metal i\u00e7in belirgin bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam raporu, ABD ekonomisinin 250 binin \u00fczerinde istihdam yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisini yeniden %4,75\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu durum, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in \u015fahin kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerini bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerisine hatta 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na \u00f6teleyebilece\u011fi inanc\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftiriyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131ndaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) spread\u2019lerinde sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n cazip bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n kritik diren\u00e7 seviyelerini a\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alarak prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n verir. Daha uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi yeniden ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce bir konsolidasyon d\u00f6nemine konumlanman\u0131n hesapl\u0131 bir yoludur.<\/p>\n
Temel destek s\u00fctunlar\u0131ndan biri olan merkez bankas\u0131 talebi de zorluklarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde toplam al\u0131mlar dayan\u0131kl\u0131 olsa da, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Lira\u2019y\u0131 savunmak i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son 130 tonluk sat\u0131\u015f, geli\u015fen piyasalarda kur stresi d\u00f6nemlerinde alt\u0131n tasfiyesine gidilebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu e\u011filimi yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; ilave sat\u0131\u015flar k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, jeopolitik par\u00e7alanman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerde uzun vadeli mali riskler nedeniyle alt\u0131n i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal gerek\u00e7enin (structural case) korundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, 4.200 ABD$ destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 ilave geri \u00e7ekilmeleri, daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak i\u00e7in stratejik bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiririz. Bu, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 sermaye riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bu k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131, 2026 y\u0131l sonu tahminimizi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde 5.100 ABD$\/ons\u2019a indirmemize neden oldu. Bu tablo, 2018 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc and\u0131r\u0131yor: Alt\u0131n, \u015fahin Fed\u2019in yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan nihayetinde \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine girmi\u015fti. Benzer bir desenin olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131; mevcut konsolidasyon d\u00f6neminin de anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareketin zeminini haz\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: \u015eahin Fed ve y\u00fckselen tahvil faizleri 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131rd\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Hindistan vergiyi art\u0131r\u0131yor, TCMB 130 ton alt\u0131n satt\u0131; 2026 hedefi 5.100$.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49564","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49564"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49564\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49564"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49564"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49564"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}