\nNZD\/USD, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen \u00c7in ticaret verilerinin Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019na destek vermesiyle Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 0,5830 civar\u0131nda seyrederek y\u00fckseli\u015fini ikinci seansa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. CNY baz\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s ticaret dengesi CNY585,69 milyardan CNY723,98 milyara geni\u015flerken, ihracat Nisan\u2019daki %9,8\u2019e k\u0131yasla y\u0131ll\u0131k %13,8 artt\u0131 ve ithalat da \u00f6nceki %20,6\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %21,5 y\u00fckseldi. USD baz\u0131nda ticaret fazlas\u0131 105,43 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131karak 92,1 milyar dolarl\u0131k beklentiyi ve \u00f6nceki 84,82 milyar dolarl\u0131k okumay\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131; ihracat %15,0\u2019lik konsens\u00fcse kar\u015f\u0131 %19,4 artarken, ithalat %25,0 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 %27,4 y\u00fckseldi.\n<\/p>\n
\nParite ayr\u0131ca, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran ve \u0130srail\u2019in kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurma konusunda anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan faydaland\u0131; ancak \u0130srailli ve \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerden gelen sonraki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ate\u015fkesin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretlerini canl\u0131 tuttu. \u00d6te yandan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileri enflasyon endi\u015felerini peki\u015ftirerek Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika izleyece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. CME FedWatch, Aral\u0131k\u2019ta 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n %43\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini (bir ay \u00f6nce %14) g\u00f6sterirken, dikkatler \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verisine ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi.\n<\/p>\n
\nYeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n, son \u00c7in ticaret verilerinden destek buldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %7,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; bu da Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n temel emtialar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik talebin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir ticaret orta\u011f\u0131ndan gelen bu olumlu veri, kiwi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r arkas\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.\n<\/p>\n
\nABD dolar\u0131, Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerin bir miktar hafiflemesi nedeniyle son d\u00f6nemde zay\u0131flad\u0131. Diplomaside ilerleme i\u015faretleri belirdik\u00e7e k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli g\u00fcvenli liman talebi tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Yak\u0131n vadeli risk alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki bu azalma, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p NZD gibi daha y\u00fcksek getirili para birimlerine y\u00f6nelmesine neden oldu.\n<\/p>\n
\nBununla birlikte, altta yatan sorunlar \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in bu jeopolitik sakinli\u011fin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. VIX endeksi ge\u00e7en ay 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131ktan sonra 16 civar\u0131na yerle\u015fti; ancak olumsuz herhangi bir man\u015fette yeniden kolayca y\u00fckselebilir. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesinin uyar\u0131 vermeden geri d\u00f6nebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.\n<\/p>\n
\nDolar\u0131n ana belirleyicisi, daha \u015fahin tarafa e\u011filen Fed politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc olmaya devam ediyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam raporu (May\u0131s\u2019ta 210 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131), enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015felerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Piyasa, ilave sinyaller i\u00e7in bu haftaki ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisini yak\u0131ndan izliyor.\n<\/p>\n
\nCME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %55\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce yaln\u0131zca %30 seviyesindeydi. Beklentilerdeki bu de\u011fi\u015fim ABD dolar\u0131na a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerde bir taban olu\u015fturuyor ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, NZD\/USD\u2019deki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri dolar\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\n<\/p>\n
\nBu arka plan \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak. NZD\/USD \u00f6zelinde ise yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verilerinin y\u00fcksek gelmesi durumunda olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. Bu pozisyonlar, ABD faiz beklentilerindeki art\u0131\u015ftan faydalanmam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski de s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kiwi ralliye devam m\u0131? G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00c7in ticaret verileri NZD\/USD\u2019yi 0,5830\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u0130ran-\u0130srail ate\u015fkes umudu dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131; ancak \u015fahin Fed fiyatlamas\u0131 ve yakla\u015fan T\u00dcFE-\u00dcFE dalgay\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49795,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49563"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49563\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}