Sterlin, siyasi belirsizlik ve zay\u0131flayan ekonomik verilerin Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6lgelemesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Bu durum, piyasalar\u0131n enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gidebilme ihtimalini tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Nisan GSYH verisi \u00f6ncesinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, daralma riskini daha y\u00fcksek faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla dengelerken, iktidardaki \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi i\u00e7indeki liderlik gerilimleri de politika s\u00fcreklili\u011fi ve mali g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fe ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Brown Brothers Harriman, stagflasyonist ko\u015fullar ve ekonominin daralabilme ihtimalini Sterlin\u2019in ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda gerilemesinin gerek\u00e7eleri olarak g\u00f6steriyor ve ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans g\u00f6sterece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle GBP\/USD paritesini 1,3100 seviyesinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Societe Generale ise Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n liderlik adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli siyasi g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcn\u00fcn politika \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etki yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; ancak BoE\u2019nin Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019ndaki \u015fahin seslerin muhtemelen az\u0131nl\u0131kta kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu nedenle Haziran\u2019da faizlerin sabit tutulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Sterlin\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k ve yava\u015flayan ekonomiye i\u015faret eden g\u00f6stergeler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019ni k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, stagflasyon ortam\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finde para birimini desteklemesi pek olas\u0131 de\u011fil. Son veriler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ilk \u00e7eyrekte yaln\u0131zca %0,1 ile neredeyse yatay seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu da ekonominin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131k \u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda belirginle\u015fiyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD istihdam raporu 220 binin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Ekonomik momentumdaki bu net ayr\u0131\u015fma, GBP\/USD i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,3100 seviyesine do\u011fru bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in en do\u011frudan stratejinin al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u201cput\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalarken riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutmay\u0131 sa\u011flar. \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi i\u00e7indeki siyasi s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme, bu hareketi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilecek temel bir kataliz\u00f6r konumunda.<\/p>\n
Bu Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Nisan GSYH verisi \u00f6nemli bir olay riski. Ger\u00e7ek bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olan daralma, Sterlin\u2019de sert bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu nedenle, bu veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n kurulmas\u0131n\u0131n avantajl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k d\u00f6nemlerinde yap\u0131lan faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 bir para birimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmez; 2022-2023\u2019\u00fcn zorlu d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi. Z\u0131mni volatilitenin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da maliyetleri y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in \u201cput spread\u201d gibi stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Mevcut %3,5\u2019lik Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon verisi BoE\u2019yi ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayacak kadar y\u00fcksek, ancak olumsuz b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc telafi etmeye yetecek d\u00fczeyde de\u011fil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin alarm veriyor: Siyasi gerilim ve zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasalar BoE\u2019nin ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 tartarken, Cuma Nisan GSYH daralmas\u0131 GBP\/USD\u2019yi 1,3100\u2019a itebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47666,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49562\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}