EUR\/USD Teknik Seviyeleri ve Etkinlik Riskleri<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,0850 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6nemli makroekonomik geli\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde pozisyon al\u0131yor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) son g\u00fcvercin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, euronun g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, piyasa bu \u00e7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) verisine odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ard\u0131ndan gelecek hafta Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz karar\u0131 g\u00fcndemin merkezine yerle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze g\u00f6re \u015fu anda ana belirleyici, b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131. ECB, son okumada %2,4\u2019e gerileyen Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonundaki yava\u015flamaya yan\u0131t olarak eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi sinyali verdi. Bu durum, h\u00e2l\u00e2 %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyreden kal\u0131c\u0131 ABD enflasyonu ile m\u00fccadele eden Fed ile keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Para Politikas\u0131 Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve Jeopolitik Zemin<\/p>\n
Bu hafta beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelecek bir ABD T\u00dcFE verisi, temmuzda bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltece\u011fi i\u00e7in dolar\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Tarihsel veriler, 2024\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz bir enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Fed beklentilerinde sert bir yeniden fiyatlamaya ve dolar\u0131n haftalar s\u00fcren rallisine yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer bir tabloya i\u015faret ediyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131, piyasan\u0131n gelecek ay i\u00e7in %45 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bu haftaki verilere olduk\u00e7a duyarl\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca daha geni\u015f risk ortam\u0131n\u0131 da hesaba kat\u0131yoruz; jeopolitik gerilimin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler genellikle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d cazibesini destekliyor. Uluslararas\u0131 ticaret anla\u015fmalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin son s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeler ve G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 tedirgin tutuyor. Bu belirsizlik zemini, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dolara alttan destek vererek EUR\/USD i\u00e7in bir bask\u0131 unsuru (headwind) olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde piyasalar\u0131n daha \u015fahin bir Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) beklentisiyle pozisyon almas\u0131yla 1,1545 civar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Dikkat, \u00e7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI) verileri ile per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB faiz karar\u0131na b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda; euro i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadedeki tonu belirlemesi beklenen geli\u015fme ise ECB karar\u0131.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin, haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk kez politika faizini art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve baz senaryoda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa gitmesi bekleniyor. Bu hamle, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi sonras\u0131nda ECB\u2019yi emsalleri aras\u0131nda politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran ilk kurum haline getirecek. Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n politika metnini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenlemesi planlan\u0131yor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ECB duru\u015funa ili\u015fkin ilave sinyaller i\u00e7in bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyecek. \u00d6te yandan ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir \u00f6neriyi g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde g\u00fcndeme getirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu\u2019nun \u0130ran ve Hizbullah\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n hen\u00fcz bitmedi\u011fini, ancak her ikisinin de \u015fimdiye kadarki en zay\u0131f d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011funu ifade etmesinin ard\u0131ndan gerilim y\u00fcksek seyrediyor; olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD 1,0850\u2019de diren\u00e7te: Piyasalar \u00e7ar\u015famba ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019ye, per\u015fembe ECB karar\u0131na kilitlendi. Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskler dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir; \u015fahin veri Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49558"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49558\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}