Hollanda\u2019da t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n hacmi Nisan ay\u0131nda son verilere g\u00f6re %1 artt\u0131. Bu oran, bir \u00f6nceki verideki %0,9\u2019luk art\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir h\u0131zlanmaya i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Bu hareket, ayl\u0131k bazdaki de\u011fi\u015fimi 0,1 puan yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Veriler, Hollanda\u2019daki talep ko\u015fullar\u0131na dair g\u00fcncel bir foto\u011fraf sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin Hollanda t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin \u00e7ekirdek \u00fclkelerinden biri i\u00e7in dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir ekonomik arka plan\u0131 teyit ediyor. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir y\u00fckseli\u015f olsa da, i\u00e7 talebin beklenenden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, yaz aylar\u0131na girerken daha geni\u015f Avrupa ekonomisi i\u00e7in olumlu bir \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu harcama verisi, May\u0131s ay\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun %2,5 ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) %2 hedefinin inatla \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131yla birlikte ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir t\u00fcketici, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimini g\u00fcndeme alma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r. Piyasan\u0131n, ECB\u2019nin enflasyon konusunda temkinli kalma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in AEX endeksi \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Hollanda endeksi bu y\u0131l \u015fimdiden %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi ve t\u00fcketicideki bu g\u00fc\u00e7, Ahold Delhaize ve Heineken gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlere do\u011frudan destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. AEX opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmaya devam ederken, call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel i\u00e7in maliyet-etkin bir pozisyonlanma sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 veriler, Euro\u2019nun ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini de destekliyor. 1,08 civar\u0131nda seyreden EUR\/USD kurunun, 1,10 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hamle yapabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu olas\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz taraf\u0131nda ise bu veri, ECB\u2019nin \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon ve diren\u00e7li b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2022 gibi d\u00f6nemlere ili\u015fkin tarihsel inceleme, piyasalar\u0131n faiz beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlamak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce bir ECB faiz indirimi ihtimalini fiyatlamay\u0131 b\u0131rakmas\u0131 durumunda kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde k\u0131sa vadeli Euribor vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Hollanda\u2019da t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 Nisan\u2019da %1\u2019e h\u0131zland\u0131; i\u00e7 talep diren\u00e7li. Enflasyon %2,5\u2019teyken ECB\u2019nin erken indirim ihtimali azal\u0131yor. Strateji: AEX call, EUR\/USD call, k\u0131sa vadeli Euribor sat\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47734,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49552","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49552\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}