\u00c7in\u2019in yuan baz\u0131nda ticaret dengesi May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 723,98 milyar CNY\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek piyasa beklentisi olan 637 milyar CNY\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, ay i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fazla olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler, bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcte g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticaret pozisyonunun beklentilerden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; fazla, beklentiyi 86,98 milyar CNY a\u015ft\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klamada ilave bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki bu ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bir yandan, \u00f6zellikle y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %25 art\u0131\u015f kaydeden elektrikli ara\u00e7lar ve yenilenebilir enerji bile\u015fenlerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat verileri, \u00c7in mallar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u00fcresel talebin sa\u011flam oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Di\u011fer yandan, ithalat\u0131n zay\u0131f seyretmeye devam etmesi, yurt i\u00e7i talepte s\u00fcregelen k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, yuan\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 ila s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Fazla, temel olarak CNY a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pozitif olsa da, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n USD\/CNY g\u00fcnl\u00fck fixingini 7,24 civar\u0131nda belirlemesi, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lara zarar verebilecek h\u0131zl\u0131 bir de\u011ferlenmeyi engelleme iste\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle belirgin bir yuan rallisine do\u011frudan pozisyon almaktansa, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri tercih ederiz.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, end\u00fcstriyel emtialar konusundaki temkinli duru\u015fumuzu da g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Son g\u00fcmr\u00fck k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131, bak\u0131r ve demir cevheri ithalat\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re s\u0131ras\u0131yla %4 ve %6 geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da yurt i\u00e7i in\u015faat ve imalat faaliyetlerinin zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. Bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 veya end\u00fcstriyel metal ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevlerinde bunun daha hedefli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 gerektirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Teknoloji ve ye\u015fil enerji \u015firketlerinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek olan ChiNext endeksinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat \u015fampiyonlar\u0131na maruziyet art\u0131r\u0131labilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ithalat verilerinin ekonominin bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn toparlanmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi nedeniyle, yurt i\u00e7i t\u00fcketime ve gayrimenkule ba\u011fl\u0131 endekslerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k duru\u015fumuzu koruyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130hracattaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, \u00f6zellikle Bat\u0131 ile jeopolitik gerilimleri de art\u0131rabilir. Tarifeler konusunda s\u00f6ylemin sertle\u015fmesini ve bunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kayda de\u011fer oynakl\u0131k yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu durum, her iki y\u00f6nde de sert ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi g\u00fc\u00e7 fiyat hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak ad\u0131na FXI gibi Hong Kong\u2019da i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ETF\u2019lerde straddle stratejilerinin al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz \u00c7in fazlas\u0131: May\u0131s\u2019ta yuan baz\u0131nda ticaret dengesi 723,98 mlr CNY ile beklentiyi 86,98 mlr a\u015ft\u0131. \u0130hracat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, ithalat zay\u0131f; CNY destek, emtialar bask\u0131. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47810,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49548","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49548"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49548\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}