ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (USD) alt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda izleyen endeks, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde ikinci g\u00fcnde de zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve 100,00 civar\u0131nda yatay kald\u0131. Dolar, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran ve \u0130srail\u2019in kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurma konusunda anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ilerleyebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentileri art\u0131rmas\u0131yla geriledi.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkese dair belirsizlik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00f6lgelemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu, \u0130ran ve Hizbullah\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen sava\u015f\u0131n hen\u00fcz bitmedi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ran ordusu \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 ve merkez komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde g\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan dahil daha sert misilleme uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Ayr\u0131 olarak, jeopolitik gerilimlerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileriyle birlikte enflasyon endi\u015felerini k\u00f6r\u00fcklemesi ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi, getirisi olmayan G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi varl\u0131klar\u0131n cazibesini azaltan bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %42\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %14\u2019t\u00fc. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni (T\u00dcFE) ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni (\u00dcFE) izleyecek.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi 105,20 seviyesi civar\u0131nda sa\u011flam duruyor ve ge\u00e7en Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam raporunun May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ekonominin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde 272 bin istihdam yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor. Bunu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 nedeniyle dolar i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, faiz beklentilerine duyarl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temkinli bir ton yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik, Orta Do\u011fu ve Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelerle besleniyor. Herhangi bir t\u0131rmanma, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak dolar\u0131n cazibesini art\u0131rarak DXY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alan yaratabilir. Bu geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; zira ani bir g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f, k\u0131sa vadede yurti\u00e7i ekonomik verilerin etkisini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi, Fed politikas\u0131 beklentilerini belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %50\u2019ye geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran yaln\u0131zca bir hafta \u00f6nce neredeyse %70\u2019ti. Bu h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlama, \u201cg\u00fcvercin Fed d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201d beklentisi \u00fczerine kurulu i\u015flemlerin yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bu haftaki ABD T\u00dcFE verisine kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon verisi, Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek dolar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; bu da EUR\/USD veya AUD\/USD gibi paritelerde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 daha cazip hale getirebilir. Piyasan\u0131n bu tek veri noktas\u0131na tepkisi \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.300 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilen alt\u0131n gibi getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle zorlu. Tarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019in 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemindeki agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde y\u00fckselen dolar, de\u011ferli metaller \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 halinde, alt\u0131n veya g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n faydal\u0131 bir korunma (hedge) sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY Asya\u2019da 100,00 civar\u0131nda zay\u0131f; \u0130ran-\u0130srail ate\u015fkesi umutlar\u0131 dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam, Fed\u2019in uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE-\u00dcFE\u2019de; alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49545","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49545"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49545\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}