AUD\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda 13 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden gelen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gev\u015fedi ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n destekli kalmas\u0131yla 0,7040\u20130,7035 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ran ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara ara verilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde bir miktar iyile\u015fse de, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gibi ba\u015fl\u0131klar dahil ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimlerinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fcz kalmas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu durum, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc iki ay\u0131 a\u015fan zirveden geri \u00e7ekilmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 ayr\u0131ca \u015fahin Fed beklentilerinden destek buldu. Piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatlarken, Haziran\u2019da Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentiler zay\u0131flad\u0131; bu da Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi ABD May\u0131s enflasyon verilerinde: \u00c7ar\u015famba T\u00dcFE, Per\u015fembe \u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve Fed\u2019in politika beklentilerini y\u00f6nlendirebilir. Teknik olarak 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131na inilmesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filime i\u015faret ederken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u0131sa vadeli sinyaller i\u00e7in \u00c7in\u2019in Ticaret Dengesi verisini de izliyor.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; parite 0,6600 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 korumakta zorlan\u0131yor. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki devam eden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi ana belirleyici olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u015fimdilik en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu, \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7en haftaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam raporunun May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 215 bin yeni istihdama i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekleyen kilit unsur olmaya devam ediyor. Son ABD T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun %3,1\u2019de yatay kalmas\u0131yla Fed\u2019in faizleri y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi peki\u015fiyor. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a yans\u0131yan g\u00fcncel piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, 2026\u2019da en az bir kez daha faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Avustralya\u2019da 1\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yaln\u0131zca %0,3 ile zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle RBA\u2019n\u0131n bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. \u00c7in\u2019den gelen talebe ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler de art\u0131yor; son imalat PMI verisi 49,8\u2019e gerileyerek olas\u0131 bir daralmaya i\u015faret etti. Fed ile RBA aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde temel bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Daha geni\u015f piyasa belirsizli\u011fi de g\u00fcvenli liman niteli\u011findeki ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na destek veriyor. Uluslararas\u0131 ticaret politikalar\u0131 ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131\/navigasyonuna ili\u015fkin yeniden artan gerilimler, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk azaltmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Bu ortam, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek para birimlerinin cazibesini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, paritenin 0,6750 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 ve yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamamas\u0131 \u201cay\u0131\u201d sinyali olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle put opsiyonu almay\u0131 veya y\u00fckseli\u015flerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcyle para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak prim toplamay\u0131 i\u00e7erebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, Fed \u015fahin; RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu belirsizli\u011fi g\u00fcvenli liman\u0131 destekliyor. G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE ve \u00c7in verilerinde. Teknikte 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama alt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47791,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49543","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49543","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49543"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49543\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}