WTI, bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn y\u00fczde 1\u2019i a\u015fan kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 89,40 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek hafif geriledi. \u0130ran ile \u0130srail\u2019in kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurma konusunda anla\u015fmaya varmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan arz endi\u015felerinin azalmas\u0131yla fiyatlar gev\u015fedi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda at\u0131lan bu ad\u0131m, bar\u0131\u015f m\u00fczakerelerinde ilerleme umudunu da art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak istikrar h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirsiz. \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu, \u0130ran ordusunun \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurdu\u011funu teyit etmesinin ard\u0131ndan, \u0130ran ve Hizbullah\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n \u201chen\u00fcz bitmedi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n merkezi askeri komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde, G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan da dahil olmak \u00fczere \u201c\u00f6ncekinden \u00e7ok daha sert ve \u00e7ok daha y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 eylemler\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Ara; \u0130srail\u2019in, balistik f\u00fcze \u00fcretiminde kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti\u011fi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneybat\u0131s\u0131ndaki bir petrokimya tesisini vurmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hafta sonu \u0130srail\u2019in Beyrut\u2019taki Hizbullah mevzilerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Hayfa\u2019daki benzer bir tesisi hedef almas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Trump\u2019\u0131n, Tahran\u2019la g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin zamanla petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki yorumlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7ifte ablukas\u0131 alt\u0131nda fiilen kapal\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu durum ham petrol, rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnler ve do\u011fal gaz sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 aksat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019\u0131n 89,50 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n mevcut geri \u00e7ekilmesini, ate\u015fkes haberine verilen refleks niteli\u011finde bir tepki olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa, \u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak durmas\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ancak her iki taraftan gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, temel arz riskleri son derece y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
En kritik unsur olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00e7ifte abluka hi\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Son denizcilik analizleri, bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en tanker trafi\u011finin normal seviyelere g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu ve bunun fiilen piyasadan g\u00fcnl\u00fck milyonlarca varilin \u00e7ekilmesi anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu temel arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc olas\u0131 k\u0131lm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu arz kesintisi art\u0131k stok verilerinde de net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporu, analist beklentilerini belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u015farak 4,8 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz ham petrol stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (draw) g\u00f6sterdi ve ablukaya ba\u011fl\u0131 etkinin piyasay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bo\u011faz kapal\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Petrol piyasas\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility), OVX ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, ate\u015fkes haberine ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeye ra\u011fmen 45 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrini koruyor. Bu, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ihtimalini h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Mevcut sakinlik, bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmden ziyade bir duraklama izlenimi veriyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki benzer ge\u00e7ici yumu\u015famalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7o\u011fu kez \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sert fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc biliniyor. 2019 K\u00f6rfez gerilimleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131, alg\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 tersine d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Tahran ve Tel Aviv\u2019den gelen uyar\u0131lar, bu durumun da farkl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu unsurlar \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut fiyat zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Piyasa, k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkesin bozulmas\u0131 riskini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde eksik fiyatl\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda toparlanmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, A\u011fustos vadeli 100 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (out-of-the-money call) gibi enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131 al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde nefes mi, f\u0131rt\u0131na \u00f6ncesi sessizlik mi? WTI 89,40\u2019a geriledi; ate\u015fkes arz endi\u015fesini azaltt\u0131. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, tanker trafi\u011fi \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131, stoklar eriyor; oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49541","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49541"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49541\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}