Sterlin\u2019in Y\u00fcksek Faizler ve ABD Dolar\u0131 G\u00fcc\u00fc Ortam\u0131nda Teknik Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) politika faizi G7\u2019nin en y\u00fcksek oranlar\u0131ndan biri olan %4,5 seviyesinde kalsa da, Sterlin zorlan\u0131yor. Sterlin 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da, y\u00fcksek faizin dahi gidermekte yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f seyrederken enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 stagflasyon endi\u015felerinin Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisi i\u00e7in daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelmesiyle birlikte ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin \u00fczerindeki ana bask\u0131, kendi merkez bankas\u0131ndan ziyade ABD ekonomisinin g\u00f6reli g\u00fcc\u00fc. Ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD istihdam raporu 210 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 %3,8\u2019e \u00e7ekti. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re bu geli\u015fme, piyasalar\u0131n bu y\u0131l Federal Rezerv\u2019den faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131 ve Dolar\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Bu durum BoE\u2019yi zor bir pozisyonda b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan veride y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8 gelen Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonu, %2\u2019lik hedefin inatla \u00fczerinde kalarak bankan\u0131n faiz indirmesini engelliyor. Ancak son i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketleri, y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda ekonomik aktivitenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kritik veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 izlenecek. Yakla\u015fan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Gayri Safi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) verisinin son \u00e7eyrekte yaln\u0131zca %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret etmesi bekleniyor; bu da ekonominin neredeyse yerinde sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit edebilir. \u00d6te yandan bir sonraki ABD enflasyon raporu, Federal Rezerv\u2019in duru\u015funu ve Dolar\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fekillendirmede belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n
Sterlin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, iki g\u00fc\u00e7 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomisi Dolar\u2019\u0131 desteklerken, y\u00fcksek faizleri ta\u015f\u0131yamayan zay\u0131f Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisi Sterlin \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor. Tarihsel olarak, ekonominin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde enflasyon nedeniyle faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmak zorunda kalan merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimleri zay\u0131flama e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 Se\u00e7enekleri ve Piyasa G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Sterlin 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamaya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen kritik 1,2650 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece e\u011filimimiz orta derecede negatif. Bu b\u00f6lgeye do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, \u00f6rne\u011fin GBP sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde bir sonraki \u00f6nemli destek seviyeleri 1,2500 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,2440 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilecek temel kataliz\u00f6r, zay\u0131f bir Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH raporunun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD enflasyon verisiyle birle\u015fmesi olur. Bu senaryo, Sterlin\u2019in faiz avantaj\u0131n\u0131n onu korumaya yetmedi\u011fi anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. \u015eimdilik piyasa da, G7\u2019nin en y\u00fcksek getirisini ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n Sterlin\u2019e \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin alarm veriyor: BoE\u2019nin %4,5 faizi yetmiyor, GBP 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekliyor. 1,2650 k\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm negatif; hedef 1,2500-1,2440.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49537"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49537\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}