{"id":49535,"date":"2026-06-09T03:40:18","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T03:40:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fed-snb-ayrismasinin-etkisiyle-usd-chf-200-gunluk-ortalamanin-uzerine-yukselirken-odak-08000-seviyesine-kaydi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-09T03:40:18","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T03:40:18","slug":"fed-snb-ayrismasinin-etkisiyle-usd-chf-200-gunluk-ortalamanin-uzerine-yukselirken-odak-08000-seviyesine-kaydi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-snb-ayrismasinin-etkisiyle-usd-chf-200-gunluk-ortalamanin-uzerine-yukselirken-odak-08000-seviyesine-kaydi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed-SNB ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle USD\/CHF 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckselirken, odak 0,8000 seviyesine kayd\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/CHF Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,30 y\u00fckseldi ve 0,7903 seviyesindeki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan ve ters omuz-ba\u015f-omuz formasyonunu teyit ettikten sonra 0,7981 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmeden pozitif momentuma i\u015faret ediyor. Yak\u0131n vadede bir sonraki test 0,8000 e\u015fi\u011fi.<\/p>\n

0,8000\u2019in \u00fczerine bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 15 Ocak zirvesi 0,8040\u2019taki direnci g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; ard\u0131ndan formasyon hedefi olan 0,8045\u20130,8050 band\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda 25 Kas\u0131m g\u00fcnl\u00fck zirvesi 0,8102 izlenebilir. Fiyat\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na geri d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde parite 0,7800\u2019e y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterebilir. Arka planda CHF dinamikleri; genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu %2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda hedefleyen ve y\u0131lda d\u00f6rt kez toplanan \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) politikas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekilleniyor; ayr\u0131ca frank 2011-2015 d\u00f6neminde euroya sabitlenmi\u015f, bu uygulaman\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde bir de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, baz\u0131 modeller EUR\u2013CHF korelasyonunu %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

USD\/CHF\u2019nin ters omuz-ba\u015f-omuz formasyonunu teyit etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu bizim i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f sinyali. Fiyat\u0131n art\u0131k 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde konumlanmas\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadede oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 0,8000 seviyesinin test edilmesi. Bu teknik g\u00fc\u00e7, k\u0131sa vadede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Bu hareket, son d\u00f6nemde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen ABD makro verileriyle destekleniyor. \u00d6zellikle May\u0131s istihdam raporunda 250 binin \u00fczerinde istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi beklentileri a\u015farak gelmi\u015fti. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerine ili\u015fkin beklentileri \u00f6teledi ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 destekli tutuyor. Haziran 2026 ba\u015f\u0131 itibar\u0131yla Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri, Eyl\u00fcl \u00f6ncesi bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, bir ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer tarafta \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f sinyali vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,4 ile yatay seyretti. Sert bir Fed ile gev\u015femeye daha yak\u0131n bir SNB aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fimiz temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr merkez bankas\u0131 politika farklar\u0131, 2022-2023 ayr\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, paritelerde kal\u0131c\u0131 trendler \u00fcretebiliyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015flem Etkileri ve Temel Riskler<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/CHF\u2019te al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle Temmuz veya A\u011fustos vadeli, 0,8000 ya da 0,8050 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call opsiyonlar\u0131; parite rallisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle getiri elde etmeye imkan tan\u0131r. Bu strateji, teknik formasyonun ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 durumunda olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyele kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 izlemek kritik; piyasada ani bir t\u00fcrb\u00fclans g\u00fcvenli liman \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na talebi art\u0131rabilir. Ayr\u0131ca gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u0130svi\u00e7re i\u015fsizlik verisini de takip ediyoruz; beklenmedik bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, frank\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak yava\u015flatabilir. 0,7900 seviyesinin alt\u0131na kararl\u0131 bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, bizim i\u00e7in bu y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/CHF\u2019te teknik k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m ate\u015fi yakt\u0131: Parite 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA \u00fcst\u00fcnde, ters OBO\u2019yu teyit etti; RSI 60+ ile momentum g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. 0,8000 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,8040-0,8050, sonra 0,8102 hedef; alt\u0131 0,7800 riski. Fed \u015fahin, SNB g\u00fcvercin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49535","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49535"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49535\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}