Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve ABD\u2019de daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, ge\u00e7en hafta Asya para birimleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; zay\u0131fl\u0131k \u00f6zellikle Kore wonu (KRW) ve Endonezya rupiah\u0131nda (IDR) yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. KRW\u2019deki zay\u0131flama yeniden s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmeyi (verbal intervention) tetiklerken, Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BI) rupiah\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
KRW\u2019nin zay\u0131f performans\u0131, makro temellerin destekleyici kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ak\u0131m\/pozisyon kaynakl\u0131 (flow-driven) olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. Hisse senedi kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n az say\u0131daki yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 isimde yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131, portf\u00f6y yeniden dengelemesini ve yo\u011funla\u015fma limitlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi; bu durum para birimi i\u00e7in teknik bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r yaratt\u0131. Endonezya\u2019da BI, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda faizi 50 baz puan art\u0131rarak %5,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; buna ra\u011fmen USDIDR ge\u00e7en hafta 18.000\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ekonomistler bu y\u0131l ilave 50 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklerken, kur bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in daha fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riskinin a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunurken ve son ABD istihdam raporu faiz indirimi beklentilerini daha da \u00f6teledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, Asya para birimleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ana tema ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme. Bu ortam, Asya d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda anlaml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte uzun pozisyon almaya kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli durmam\u0131za neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
Kore wonundaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k temel de\u011fil, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n birka\u00e7 yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisseden portf\u00f6y yeniden dengelemesiyle \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 belirleyici. Son bir ayda KOSPI\u2019dan yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 2 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak, Kore\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat verilerine ra\u011fmen USD\/KRW paritesini yukar\u0131 itti. Bunu yak\u0131n vadeli bir e\u011filim olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu ge\u00e7ici, ak\u0131m kaynakl\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/KRW al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Endonezya rupiah\u0131nda ise tablo daha karma\u015f\u0131k; Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131, faizleri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla aktif bi\u00e7imde m\u00fccadele ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n USD\/IDR 18.200 seviyesini\u2014\u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131 zirveyi\u2014test ederek d\u0131\u015fsal bask\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koydu. Merkez bankas\u0131 ile piyasa aras\u0131ndaki bu m\u00fccadelenin belirgin fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; straddle gibi volatiliteye oynayan opsiyon stratejileri bu nedenle cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Farkl\u0131 itici g\u00fc\u00e7ler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Kore wonunda uzun\/Endonezya rupiah\u0131nda k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir parite i\u015flemini (pairs trade) de izliyoruz. Bu pozisyon, wonun temel olarak sa\u011flam duru\u015funun rupiah\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 stabilize olmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n verece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Rupiah, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ve m\u00fcdahalelerine daha a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fundan, daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez hareketlere zemin olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde, Fed s\u0131k\u0131; dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken Asya kurlar\u0131 bask\u0131da. KRW\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131k ak\u0131m kaynakl\u0131, opsiyonla USD\/KRW de\u011ferlendirilir. IDR dalgal\u0131; BI m\u00fcdahalesi s\u00fcrerken straddle ve KRW long\/IDR short izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49534\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}