Alt\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2013\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131ndaki duraksaman\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesi, buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD makro risklerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti. XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.268 dolara kadar geriledikten sonra 4.332 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi sonras\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %5\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetmi\u015fti. ABD hisseleri y\u00fckselirken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 100,00 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti ve ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi iki baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %4,552\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc k\u0131s\u0131tlad\u0131. Petrol, Bat\u0131 Teksas t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol (WTI) \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselirken, net bir ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yoklu\u011fu jeopoliti\u011fi g\u00fcndemde tuttu.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler, Nisan\u2019da %3,8 olan y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun May\u0131s\u2019ta %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesinin beklendi\u011fi ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) verisine \u00e7evrildi. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131, 2026 sonuna kadar 24 baz puanl\u0131k Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na i\u015faret etti. New York Fed T\u00fcketici Beklentileri Anketi, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisinin %3,6\u2019dan %3,5\u2019e geriledi\u011fini, \u00fc\u00e7 ve be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k beklentilerin ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla %3,1 ve %3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) 4.436 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 34,05\u2019te; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 4.200, 4.098 ve 4.000, yukar\u0131da 4.500, 4.550, 4.623 ve 4.792 seviyeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n i\u00e7in birincil kataliz\u00f6r\u00fcn yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI) raporu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Mevcut yatay fiyat hareketi, piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,2 gibi y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon okumas\u0131 bekledi\u011fi bu \u00f6nemli veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yaln\u0131zca bir konsolidasyondan ibaret. Bu kadar y\u00fcksek bir rakam, May\u0131s 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen %3,3\u2019l\u00fck y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak, \u015fahin bir Fed tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle stratejimiz alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc konumlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; zira piyasa y\u0131l sonuna kadar indirimleri de\u011fil, 24 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Getirilerin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bu ortam, getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 giderek daha maliyetli hale getiriyor. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread stratejileri kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu destekliyor; alt\u0131n 4.436 dolardaki kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. RSI 34 civar\u0131nda seyrederek sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funa ve varl\u0131k \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201d b\u00f6lgesine girmeden \u00f6nce daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in tetikleyici olarak 4.268 dolardaki son dip seviyesinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda volatilitenin belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu, piyasay\u0131 hareketlendirdi\u011fi bilinen bir olay. Tarihsel olarak beklentiden s\u0131cak gelen enflasyon raporlar\u0131, tahvil getirileri ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda sert y\u00fckseli\u015flere yol a\u00e7arak alt\u0131n\u0131n ani \u015fekilde sat\u0131\u015f yemesine neden oldu. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyon beklentilerinin kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 veya a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde benzer bir tepki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler bir miktar taban deste\u011fi sunsa da, mevcut durumda bunun ABD para politikas\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131n etkisine k\u0131yasla ikincil bir fakt\u00f6r oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Olas\u0131 bir gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, bu fiyat taban\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rarak alt\u0131n \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. \u015eimdilik, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon beklentileri ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya e\u011filimli bir Fed\u2019in etkisiyle en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 yolunun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: T\u00dcFE! Jeopolitik duraksama fiyat\u0131 yatay tutsa da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri, y\u00fckselen getiriler ve Fed\u2019in 2026\u2019ya kadar 24 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlamas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Teknikte 200G SMA alt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49533"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49533\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}