Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa (CEE) d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131, yo\u011fun yerel veri takviminin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkisine kar\u015f\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u00fcresel man\u015fetler ve ABD faizlerinde \u015fahin yeniden fiyatlama taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendiriliyor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, geli\u015fen piyasalar genelinde pozisyonlanman\u0131n daha savunmac\u0131 hale d\u00f6nmesine ra\u011fmen, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k ufukta Polonya\u2019da neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7, \u00c7ekya\u2019da ise neredeyse d\u00f6rt faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yeniden kaym\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Yerel faiz beklentilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131n, b\u00f6lge para birimlerinin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 belirliyor; CEE kompleksi, geli\u015fen piyasalardaki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 takip ederek \u00f6nceki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. K\u00fcresel hisse senetleri ve faizlerde riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor ve Polonya zlotisi b\u00f6lge i\u00e7inde en a\u00e7\u0131kta olan para birimi olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor; EUR\/PLN 4,225\u20134,265 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa para birimleri \u00fczerinde kontrol\u00fc ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yerel haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 ve genel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi b\u00f6lge \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu e\u011filimin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ABD istihdam raporu, 272 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirmeyece\u011fi beklentilerini peki\u015ftirdi. ABD\u2019deki bu \u015fahin yeniden fiyatlama, dolar\u0131n di\u011fer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131n ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc. Geli\u015fen piyasalar bu bask\u0131y\u0131 hissediyor; MSCI Geli\u015fen Piyasalar Para Birimi Endeksi son iki haftada %1,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde geriledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar Polonya\u2019da olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor olsa da, bunun zlotiyi desteklemeye yetmeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Polonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (NBP), enflasyonun son d\u00f6nemde %2,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesine ra\u011fmen, politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma konusunda aceleci olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima eden istikrarl\u0131 bir g\u00fcvercin tonunu korudu. Bu durum, piyasa beklentileri ile merkez bankas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi aras\u0131nda belirgin bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Polonya zlotisi b\u00f6lgedeki en k\u0131r\u0131lgan para birimi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde. G\u00fcvercin yerel merkez bankas\u0131 ile \u015fahin ABD ortam\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fimi, zlotiyi zay\u0131fl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir hedef haline getiriyor. EUR\/PLN\u2019nin yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 test etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini ve 4,28 seviyesinin \u00fczerine y\u00f6nelmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, \u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zlotide ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/PLN al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. VIX endeksinin 15\u2019in \u00fczerine yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, opsiyon stratejileri beklenen dalgal\u0131 seyirde yol almak i\u00e7in i\u015flevsel bir ara\u00e7 sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: CEE d\u00f6vizleri yerel veriyi a\u015f\u0131p k\u00fcresel \u015fahin dalgaya teslim. ABD faizleri ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar zlotiyi k\u0131r\u0131lganla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; EUR\/PLN 4,28\u2019e g\u00f6z k\u0131rp\u0131yor. Opsiyonla USD\/PLN call \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49527"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49527\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}