West Texas Intermediate, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 89,95 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; %1,57 y\u00fckselirken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde daha \u00f6nce %1,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde prim yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yenilenen \u0130srail-\u0130ran gerilimi ve Husilerin eylemleri petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u0130ran destekli Husiler \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdiklerini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerek \u0130srail gemilerinin K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019e giri\u015finin yasakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130srail ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar da risk primini y\u00fcksek tuttu. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ate\u015fkesin defalarca ihlal edildi\u011fini belirtirken, \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ABD ve m\u00fcttefik \u00fcslerinin \u201cme\u015fru hedeflere\u201d d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu; bu da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde olas\u0131 arz kesintilerine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler OPEC+ cephesine de \u00e7evrildi. Grup, temmuz i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck 188 bin varillik \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 belirledi; ancak g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fcndemi nedeniyle bu hamle piyasada temkinli bir ad\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Fiyatlar daha sonra, Fars Haber Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerinin \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik operasyonlar\u0131 sonland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019a sald\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde daha sert yan\u0131t verilece\u011fini bildirmesi ve ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n derhal durdurulmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapmas\u0131yla kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. WTI, i\u015flem i\u00e7i 93,50 dolar civar\u0131ndaki zirveden gerilerken, traderlar k\u0131sa vadeli arz risklerini yeniden fiyatlad\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n piyasadaki yorumlar k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, WTI fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 90 dolar civar\u0131nda tutan ana unsurun jeopolitik risk primi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. OPEC+\u2019\u0131n temmuz i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 188 bin varillik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasada b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediliyor. Temel dinamikler yerine \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131, oynak bir i\u015flem ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna yan\u0131t olarak oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almay\u0131 tercih etmeliyiz; zira her yeni man\u015fette her iki y\u00f6nde de sert fiyat hareketleri olas\u0131. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) y\u00fcksek seyrediyor ve son d\u00f6nemde 45 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye tarihsel ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde olup piyasada fiyat t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle uzun straddle veya strangle gibi stratejiler etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ana pozisyonumuz, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden olas\u0131 arz kesintilerinin tetikleyebilece\u011fi yeni fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeli. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in 95 ve 100 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, olas\u0131 bir ralliden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flarken azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, 93,50 dolardan do\u011frulanmam\u0131\u015f haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere ani bir gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 da hedge yapmal\u0131y\u0131z. Koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya ay\u0131 (bear) put spread kurmak, tansiyonun beklenmedik \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc h\u0131zl\u0131 bir fiyat gerilemesine kar\u015f\u0131 koruyabilir. Haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n verdi\u011fi bir piyasada bu gerekli bir tedbirdir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma olmasa dahi, alttaki piyasa temelleri y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. Son EIA raporu, ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 3,1 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti; bu rakam analist beklentilerini a\u015farak fiziksel piyasada s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu yap\u0131sal a\u00e7\u0131k, mevcut fiyatlar\u0131n alt\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, b\u00f6lgedeki jeopolitik olaylar uzun s\u00fcreli fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131; K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda 1990\u2019\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131n ikiye katlanmas\u0131 buna \u00f6rnek. Tarih kusursuz bir rehber olmasa da petrol arz\u0131na y\u00f6nelik alg\u0131lanan tehditlere piyasan\u0131n sert tepki verebilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Artan risk ortam\u0131na ve anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlu kalmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde tansiyon yeniden y\u00fckseliyor: WTI 90 dolara yak\u0131n. \u0130srail-\u0130ran ve Husiler risk primini art\u0131r\u0131rken H\u00fcrm\u00fcz arz endi\u015fesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. OPEC+ art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, OVX y\u00fcksek; oynakl\u0131k stratejileri g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49526","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49526"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49526\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}