Sterlin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. GBP\/USD paritesi, \u0130ran ve \u0130srail\u2019in kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 durdurma konusunda anla\u015fmas\u0131yla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etti. S\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fme, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 ve Washington\u2013Tahran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine yeniden d\u00f6n\u00fclmesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 takip etti. Sterlin %0,10 y\u00fckselerek risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki m\u00fctevaz\u0131 toparlanmay\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131; ancak daha geni\u015f makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrini korudu.<\/p>\n
Seans\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde GBP\/USD, Avrupa saatlerinde 1,3340 civar\u0131nda hafif kay\u0131plarla i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler ve piyasada ABD faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin daha fazla fiyatlanmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekledi. Parite ayr\u0131ca Asya i\u015flemlerinde \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle yeniden 1,3300\u2019lerin ortas\u0131na y\u00f6neldi; ancak dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc toparlanmay\u0131 bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nin, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerdeki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli duraksamayla 1,2750 seviyesi civar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici destek buldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bununla birlikte, temel risk primi ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini desteklemeye devam ediyor. Bu da, olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanman\u0131n bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilece\u011fi k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir ortam yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Stratejimizin oda\u011f\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) aras\u0131ndaki patikalar\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131. Son ABD enflasyon verisinin %3,4 seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n son T\u00dcFE okumalar\u0131n\u0131n %2,3 olmas\u0131; Fed\u2019in \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki arg\u00fcman\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, orta vadede GBP\/USD paritesinde anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yatay bantta fiyatlamadan ve olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerden faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 1,2850 seviyesinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tavan g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle, GBP\/USD\u2019de kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Buna paralel olarak, k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, ani bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir hedge y\u00f6ntemi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck; \u00f6zellikle 2022\u2019de Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki \u201cmini b\u00fct\u00e7e\u201d krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. GBP\/USD i\u00e7in mevcut bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,5 ile g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede. Bunu, altta yatan jeopolitik riskin yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlanmas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu durum, opsiyon primlerinin ucuz oldu\u011funa ve duyarl\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fmeden \u00f6nce defansif pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlinde temkinli ralli: \u0130ran-\u0130srail ate\u015fkesiyle GBP\/USD s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi, ancak dolar Fed\u2019in \u201cy\u00fcksek faiz\u201d beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. BoE-Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yukar\u0131y\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yor; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilitede opsiyon hedgesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49523","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49523","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49523"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49523\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49523"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49523"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49523"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}