Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, Avrupa \u00f6\u011fleden sonras\u0131na girilirken yataya yak\u0131n seyretti; vadeli i\u015flemler, gece 50.500\u2019den 51.000\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldikten sonra y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirerek 50.750 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Spot i\u015flemlerde S&P 500 yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,7 y\u00fckselirken Nasdaq kabaca %1,3 artt\u0131; Dow ise %0,1 ekledi. \u00c7ip \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki toparlanma, teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek olan endeksleri yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken Dow\u2019daki yans\u0131mas\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc geri \u00e7ekilme yar\u0131 iletkenlerde yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; Nasdaq %4,2 d\u00fc\u015ferek Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana en k\u00f6t\u00fc seans\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019si yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 gerilerken Micron %13 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ise tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: Micron yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 y\u00fckseldi ve ayn\u0131 ETF yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 artt\u0131; ancak bu momentumun Dow i\u00e7inde temsili s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik g\u00fcndem odakta kalmaya devam etti: \u0130ran-\u0130srail ate\u015fkesi, hafta sonu yeniden sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalara ra\u011fmen resmen y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kald\u0131. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolar civar\u0131nda %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Dikkatler ard\u0131ndan ABD enflasyon verilerine \u00e7evriliyor; May\u0131s T\u00dcFE \u00e7ar\u015famba 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,5 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 gelmesi (Nisan\u2019daki %3,8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131) bekleniyor; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9 (Nisan\u2019daki %2,8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131) olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,7 gelmesi beklenirken, \u00e7ekirdek \u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Michigan \u00dcniversitesi 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentileri takip edilecek; \u00f6nceki okuma yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,8 seviyesindeydi. Teknik seviyelerde 51.000 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7; 50.500 destek ve daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 50.000 i\u015faret edildi. Stoch RSI\u2019\u0131n 18 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu, ayr\u0131ca 50 ve 200 periyot EMA konumlanmas\u0131na at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Nasdaq\u2019\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 sergilerken Dow Jones\u2019un ayak uydurmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131, b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f bir piyasaya bak\u0131yoruz. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma bir uyar\u0131 sinyali; zira liderlik dar ve birka\u00e7 yar\u0131 iletken hissesine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. Man\u015fet rakamlar\u0131n ima etti\u011finden daha az sa\u011flam bir zemin hissi veriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu haftan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) raporu. Man\u015fet enflasyonun %4,2\u2019ye h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 beklenirken, bu seviyede ya da \u00fczerinde gelecek her veri, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirerek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini daha da yukar\u0131 itebilir. Cleveland Fed\u2019in Enflasyon Nowcasting modeli nihai rakam\u0131n daha da s\u0131cak gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; %4,4\u2019e y\u00f6nelen bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizi olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu enflasyon riski jeopolitik gerilimlerle de besleniyor; k\u0131r\u0131lgan \u0130ran-\u0130srail ate\u015fkesi ham petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 91 dolar civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Son Enerji Bilgi \u0130daresi (EIA) raporu, ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 3,1 milyon varillik beklenmedik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stererek arz\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Bu y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131, Fed\u2019in m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi enflasyona do\u011frudan yans\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan T\u00dcFE verisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, en \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir sonu\u00e7 olarak y\u00fcksek volatilite g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX), sadece iki hafta \u00f6nceki 13 seviyesindeki dipten y\u00fckselerek 19 civar\u0131nda dengelendi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n portf\u00f6y korumas\u0131 i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek prim \u00f6dediklerine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, belirgin bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in uygun bir zamana i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle geride kalan Dow taraf\u0131nda temkinli bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlan\u0131yoruz. 50.500 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyerek DIA borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya put spread\u2019leri almak, makul bir hedge olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131cak bir T\u00dcFE verisi, bu kritik teknik seviyeyi k\u0131rd\u0131rabilecek kataliz\u00f6r olabilir.<\/p>\n
Tedbirli duru\u015fumuza ek olarak, bu cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc planlanan dev SpaceX halka arz\u0131 da dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Tarihsel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck (blockbuster) halka arzlar \u00e7o\u011fu zaman iyimserli\u011fin zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlere denk gelir ve genel piyasadan likidite \u00e7ekebilir. Nisan 2021\u2019de Coinbase\u2019in do\u011frudan kotasyonunun riskli varl\u0131klarda \u00f6nemli bir tepeyle \u00e7ak\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz ve burada da benzer bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasada ayr\u0131\u015fma alarm\u0131: Nasdaq \u00e7ip rallisiyle \u00f6nde, Dow geride. \u0130ran-\u0130srail ate\u015fkesi s\u00fcrse de petrol 91 dolarda. \u00c7ar\u015famba T\u00dcFE riski, VIX 19 ve 50.500 deste\u011fi kritik. SpaceX IPO likidite \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47713,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49521"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49521\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}