USD\/CAD pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc dar bir bantta seyretti. Ham petroldeki hafif geri \u00e7ekilmenin emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla, ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Kanada dolar\u0131 ivme kazanamad\u0131. Parite 1,3950 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek iki ay\u0131n zirvelerine yak\u0131n kald\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Fars Haber Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, hafta sonu ya\u015fanan ve nisan ay\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkesten bu yana iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ilk kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7eren geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik askeri operasyonlar\u0131 sonland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirmesiyle petrol ve \u201cgreenback\u201d geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
WTI, daha \u00f6nce 93,50 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dikkat para politikas\u0131na da kay\u0131yor: Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor ve piyasa, enflasyon ile istihdam verilerinden gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyallerin, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n arka arkaya iki \u00e7eyrek daralmayla teknik resesyona girmesinin ard\u0131ndan yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle birlikte de\u011ferlendirilmesi nedeniyle, bankan\u0131n faizi \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci toplant\u0131da da %2,25\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de ise piyasalar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftaki Fed karar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak enflasyon verilerine odaklan\u0131yor. ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 petrol\u00fc yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken enflasyonun Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinden daha da uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Fiyatlamalar yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131da \u201cpas\u201d ihtimaline i\u015faret ederken, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD paritesinin 1,3800 yak\u0131n\u0131nda dar bir aral\u0131kta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; Kanada dolar\u0131, genel ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen de\u011fer kazanmakta zorlan\u0131yor. \u201cLoonie\u201d \u00fczerindeki ba\u015fl\u0131ca bask\u0131 ham petrol: WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 korumakta zorlan\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n OPEC+\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretim kesintilerini uzatma karar\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun \u015fimdilik ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Dikkat \u015fimdi Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) gelecek haftaki faiz karar\u0131na kay\u0131yor; faizi %3,00 seviyesinde sabit tutmalar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Kanada enflasyonu %2,5 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,2 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 BoC\u2019a harekete ge\u00e7mek i\u00e7in fazla gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. N\u00f6tr bir metin bekliyoruz; ekonomik verilerin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 halinde y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde faiz indirimi ihtimalinin kap\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k kalabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019deki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da bize g\u00f6re USD\/CAD\u2019de uzun pozisyonu cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Son ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini korurken, son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu 250 binin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Bu kombinasyon, Fed\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekten \u00f6nce faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesini olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle, olas\u0131 kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 ila alt\u0131 ay vadeli USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik tansiyon zay\u0131flad\u0131; ancak olas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz bir t\u0131rmanma petrol\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7rat\u0131p oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle, ani bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla Kanada dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol geri \u00e7ekilirken USD\/CAD 1,3950 civar\u0131nda iki ay zirvesine yak\u0131n tutunuyor: Loonie, zay\u0131f dolara ra\u011fmen ivme bulam\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler BoC\u2019un sabit faiz beklentisinde, Fed\u2019de olas\u0131 ek art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49519","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49519"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49519\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49519"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49519"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49519"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}