Sterlin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,10 y\u00fckseldi; artan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 GBP\/USD\u2019nin g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,3306 dip seviyesinden 1,3349\u2019a toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. ABD Dolar Endeksi, dolar\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri vermesiyle %0,16 d\u00fc\u015ferek 99,91\u2019e geriledi. \u0130ran ordusunun \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sona erdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan petrol, g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerindeki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc azaltt\u0131; ancak L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n misillemeyi tetikleyebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u0130ran ve \u0130srail, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n sonland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ate\u015fkeste uzla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri peki\u015ftirerek Fed\u2019in \u015fahin s\u00f6ylemini destekledi. G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi; Nisan\u2019daki %3,8\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Piyasalar 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019in 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %92 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k taraf\u0131nda veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yok; ancak BoE\u2019nin 2026\u2019da en az 50 baz puan daha s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fine dair spek\u00fclasyonlar sterlindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Teknik olarak GBP\/USD 1,3340 civar\u0131nda; 1,3456 \u00e7evresinde k\u00fcmelenen basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n ve 1,3869\u2019dan gelen al\u00e7alan trend \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131nda seyrediyor. RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 39 seviyesinde; destek 1,3159\u2019dan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019deki mevcut istikrar\u0131 ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bunun arkas\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir dolar geri \u00e7ekilmesi ve jeopolitik tansiyonda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir duraksama var. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi, \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi olacak ve bu veri muhtemelen dolar\u0131n bir sonraki ana y\u00f6n hareketini belirleyecek. Y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon verisi, Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu neredeyse kesin bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %4,2\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemesiyle, dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden devreye girmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. CME FedWatch Tool, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 %92 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve \u201cs\u0131cak\u201d bir enflasyon raporu bu beklentiyi peki\u015ftirir. 2022\u2019deki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, beklentileri a\u015fan T\u00dcFE verilerinin GBP\/USD\u2019de d\u00fczenli olarak sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) da para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenmekle birlikte, bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sterlin fiyatlamalar\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu son \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; bu nedenle para piyasalar\u0131 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda 60 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde BoE faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu destek sterlindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; ancak Fed kaynakl\u0131 bir dolar rallisini bask\u0131lamas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan veriler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 1 ayl\u0131k GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %9,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da belirgin bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 beklentisine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten faydalanmak isteyenler i\u00e7in straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 uygulanabilir bir strateji haline getiriyor. Y\u00f6nsel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe sahip olanlar i\u00e7in ise, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle 1,3300 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite, 1,3456\u2019daki kritik direncin alt\u0131nda net bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini koruyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerinin etkisiyle 1,3159 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki destek trend \u00e7izgisinin korunamamas\u0131, ay\u0131 senaryomuzu teyit edecektir. Bu seviyenin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketi tetikleyebilir ve s\u00f6z konusu put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 potansiyel olarak olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin, zay\u0131flayan dolar ve ate\u015fkesle 1,3306\u2019dan 1,3349\u2019a toparland\u0131. Kritik risk: \u00c7ar\u015famba ABD T\u00dcFE; beklenti %4,2. S\u0131cak veri Fed\u2019i \u015fahinle\u015ftirip GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,3159 deste\u011fini test edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47853,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49518","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49518"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49518\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49518"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49518"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49518"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}