EUR\/USD, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k duyarl\u0131l\u0131k sinyallerinin ard\u0131ndan Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1540 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Sentix Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 G\u00fcveni endeksi haziranda -16,4\u2019ten -13,4\u2019e iyile\u015firken, veri s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etse de daha az olumsuz bir havaya i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasa oda\u011f\u0131, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) politika karar\u0131 ve beklenen faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na kayarken bu geli\u015fme yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede parite, d\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini koruyor; 1,1587\u2019deki 20 periyotluk SMA ve 1,1621\u2019deki 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bulunuyor. 38 civar\u0131ndaki RSI, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmeden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Diren\u00e7 1,1544 ve 1,1555 seviyelerinde; ard\u0131ndan 1,1587 ve 1,1621 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Destek ise 1,1533 ve sonras\u0131nda 1,1516\u2019da. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca, ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n gelip gelmeyece\u011fine ili\u015fkin sinyal aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirecek.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7en Per\u015fembe faizleri indirme karar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,0850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc izliyoruz. Bu ad\u0131m, 2019\u2019dan bu yana ilk faiz indirimi olup, enflasyonun so\u011fumas\u0131yla birlikte \u00f6nemli bir politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Odak art\u0131k, olas\u0131 yeni gev\u015feme ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131 ve h\u0131z\u0131na tamamen kaym\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Bu politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, Eurostat\u2019\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde man\u015fet enflasyonun %2,4\u2019te teyit edildi\u011fini g\u00f6steren son verilerinin ard\u0131ndan geldi; bu seviye, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2 hedefinin olduk\u00e7a yak\u0131n\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; son Sentix Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 G\u00fcveni endeksi -10,1 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 negatif b\u00f6lgede. Bu durum, ECB\u2019nin yaln\u0131zca gerileyen enflasyona tepki vermekle kalmay\u0131p, k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir ekonomiyi desteklemek amac\u0131yla da hareket etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, gelecekteki faiz indirim patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ima edilen volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor. EUR\/USD\u2019de temmuz ay\u0131ndaki bir sonraki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde straddle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerinin temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu t\u00fcr bir pozisyon, ECB\u2019nin daha agresif ya da daha temkinli alg\u0131lanmas\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde, anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketinden fayda sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nsel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe sahip olanlar i\u00e7in ise vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri kullanarak dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Euro\u2019da ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131k beklentisine pozisyon almak g\u00fcndemimizde. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) kendi faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne sonbahara kadar ba\u015flamas\u0131 geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklenmedi\u011finden, politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dolar lehine bir zemin olu\u015fturabilir. Benzer bir dinamik 2014\u2019te de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f; merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma paritede aylar s\u00fcren bir trende yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD 1,1540\u2019ta yatay: Sentix toparlansa da negatif, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u015fa\u011f\u0131. G\u00f6zler ECB ve Lagarde\u2019da; faiz indirimi sonras\u0131 yeni gev\u015feme sinyali aran\u0131yor. Volatilite, stratejiler ve Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49517"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49517\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}