Alt\u0131n, piyasalar\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden alevlenen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ile \u015fahin Federal Rezerv g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc dengelemesiyle 11 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede yatay seyretti. XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i i\u015flemlerde 4.268 dolara kadar gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan 4.320 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay kald\u0131; bu seviye en son 23 Mart\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda hafta sonu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar, k\u0131sa vadede bar\u0131\u015f beklentilerini zay\u0131flat\u0131rken; ate\u015fkese ili\u015fkin resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine dair mesajlar belirsizli\u011fi y\u00fcksek tuttu.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 100,21\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,97\u2019ye gev\u015feyerek dolar bazl\u0131 alt\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek sa\u011flad\u0131; ancak \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d beklentileri getirisi olmayan metal \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 ABD verilerinin ard\u0131ndan CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir hafta \u00f6nceki %22\u2019den %38\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Teknik tarafta spot fiyat kilit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; RSI 34\u2019e yak\u0131n, ADX ise 28 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Diren\u00e7ler 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 4.436 dolar seviyesinde, ard\u0131ndan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA \u00e7evresindeki 4.624 dolar ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 4.793 dolar olarak izlenirken; destek 4.100 dolar civar\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u201cen az diren\u00e7li\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Beklentiler 182 bin iken 272 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam raporu, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 fikrini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu arka plan, uzun pozisyonlarda temkinli olmay\u0131 ve yatay ya da d\u00fc\u015fen alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejilerin de\u011ferlendirilmesini gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran-\u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki jeopolitik gerilimler ge\u00e7ici destek sunsa da bunu ikincil bir etken olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla y\u00fckselse de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma k\u00fcresel ekonomik faaliyeti do\u011frudan tehdit etmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece bu y\u00fckseli\u015fler genellikle k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc oluyor. Faizlerin y\u00fcksek seyretmesinin, getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131rarak yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel bask\u0131 ise daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir dinamik.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n kilit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini teyit ediyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, belirtilen 4.100 dolar destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 4.436 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerini yeni k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7mak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan elveri\u015fli bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca bu haftaki ABD enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda da bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Artan z\u0131mni volatilite, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 veya ay\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 spread\u2019leri (bear call spread) kurmay\u0131 cazip hale getirebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, prim geliri elde etmeyi sa\u011flarken; gelecekteki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 beklentisinin alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tuttu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle de uyumlu kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: Jeopolitik riskler ve \u015fahin Fed\u2019in \u00e7eki\u015fti\u011fi piyasada XAU\/USD 11 haftan\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n 4.320\u2019de yatay; DXY gev\u015fese de \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47795,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49514"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49514\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}