Norve\u00e7\u2019te \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisi, Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n 6 May\u0131s\u2019taki s\u00fcrpriz hamlesinin ard\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Banka, politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %4,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmi\u015f ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar ilave bir art\u0131\u015f alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. Man\u015fet enflasyonun Nisan\u2019daki %3,4\u2019ten %3,1\u2019e gerilemesi beklenirken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (underlying CPI) %3,2\u2019den %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Norges Bank ise May\u0131s i\u00e7in hem T\u00dcFE\u2019yi hem de \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019yi %3,3 y\/y seviyesinde projekte ediyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz, daha erken bir takip faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar halihaz\u0131rda ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; swap e\u011frisi Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda faizin 25 baz puan artarak %4,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor. D\u00f6viz cephesinde USD\/NOK\u2019un genel dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc takip etmesi beklenirken, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 durumunda kronun di\u011fer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u0130yile\u015fen d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri ve i\u00e7 talep \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 yumu\u015fatabilecek mali kapasite, NOK\u2019a destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Temmuz ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Norve\u00e7 Haziran T\u00dcFE verisini, kron a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir d\u00f6neme\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelecek bir enflasyon verisi, Norges Bank\u2019tan bir sonraki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ekebilir. Bu de\u011ferlendirme, bankan\u0131n ge\u00e7en haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u015fahin tonda \u201cfaizi sabit tutma\u201d karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geliyor; banka, enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair endi\u015felerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ima etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Piyasa May\u0131s enflasyon verilerini yeni sindirmi\u015f durumda; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %4,1 ile y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yap\u0131\u015fkan bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi. Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n Haziran\u2019a ili\u015fkin kendi tahmininin yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,0 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu seviyenin \u00fczerindeki bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Son veriler, Norve\u00e7\u2019te i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %3,9 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu da gerekmesi halinde merkez bankas\u0131na ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma alan\u0131 tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Norges Bank, Haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %4,50\u2019de sabit tutarken, enflasyonun %2,0\u2019lik hedefin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Gecelik endeks swap (OIS) piyasas\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar son bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerine fiyatl\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Norges Bank, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele krediibilitesini korumak i\u00e7in piyasalar\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmayan bir profil \u00e7izdi.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam raporunun 272 bin yeni istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi sonras\u0131, genel dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131. Bu nedenle kronu dolara kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131m taraf\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131yoruz. Bu ortam, USD\/NOK\u2019ta anlaml\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (kron lehine hareketi) s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma taahh\u00fcd\u00fc, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar temas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Norve\u00e7 kronunun \u00e7aprazlarda\u2014\u00f6zellikle euroya kar\u015f\u0131 (EUR\/NOK)\u2014daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesini bekliyoruz. Norve\u00e7\u2019in makro temelleri, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunan Brent petrol ile destekleniyor; bu da d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu tablo, ECB\u2019nin gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flamas\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale gelen Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile z\u0131tl\u0131k olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, NOK\u2019un di\u011fer Avrupa para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. EUR\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 NOK al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (NOK call) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu strateji, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskle EUR\/NOK \u00e7apraz\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe (NOK lehine) kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flayabilir. Alternatif olarak, \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadede EUR\/NOK forward sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u015fahin bir Norges Bank senaryosuna pozisyon almak i\u00e7in etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler Norve\u00e7 T\u00dcFE\u2019sinde: Man\u015fette d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, \u00e7ekirdekte olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f Norges Bank\u2019\u0131 yeniden \u015fahinle\u015ftirebilir. Yukar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz, erken faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve NOK\u2019ta \u00f6zellikle EUR kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenme beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49513"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49513\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}