Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI), 5 Haziran 2026 tarihli politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Hindistan rupisini desteklemeyi ama\u00e7layan \u00f6nlemleri a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, bankalar\u0131n 3\u20135 y\u0131l vadeli yeni FCNR(B) mevduat\u0131 toplamas\u0131 halinde d\u00f6viz (FX) riskten korunma (hedging) maliyetlerinin tamam\u0131 s\u00fcbvanse edilecek. Ayr\u0131ca, kamu iktisadi te\u015febb\u00fcslerini (K\u0130T) d\u0131\u015f ticari bor\u00e7lanma (ECB) sa\u011flamaya te\u015fvik etmek \u00fczere imtiyazl\u0131 bir FX swap imk\u00e2n\u0131 devreye al\u0131nd\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak h\u00fck\u00fcmet, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in devlet tahvillerinden elde edilen sermaye kazanc\u0131 ve faiz gelirleri \u00fczerindeki vergileri kald\u0131rd\u0131; de\u011fi\u015fiklik 1 Nisan 2026\u2019dan itibaren geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck uygulanacak \u015fekilde y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girdi. H\u00fck\u00fcmet ayr\u0131ca uygun (eligible) devlet tahvilleri kapsam\u0131n\u0131 da geni\u015fletti.<\/p>\n
MUFG, bu ad\u0131mlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 tutar\u0131nda giri\u015f yaratabilece\u011fini, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n Bloomberg Global Aggregate Endeksi\u2019ne dahil edilmesi halinde daha fazlas\u0131 i\u00e7in de alan bulundu\u011funu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede banka, rupi patikas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme revize ederek USD\/INR\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl \u00e7eyre\u011finde 94,00\u2019e gerilemesini, ard\u0131ndan bir sonraki takvim y\u0131l\u0131nda yeniden 96,00 seviyelerine do\u011fru hareket etmesini bekliyor. Banka ayr\u0131ca INR tahvil getirilerinin kademeli olarak y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
RBI\u2019nin yeni politikalar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Hindistan rupisinin k\u0131sa vadede g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Sermaye giri\u015flerini art\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefleyen bu \u00f6nlemler, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc temel olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/INR kurunun gerilemesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Son piyasa verileri de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor: A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en iki i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde rupi, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 95,10\u2019dan 94,75\u2019e de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Takas\/kliring kurumu verilerine g\u00f6re yabanc\u0131 portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (FPI) da 5 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana Hindistan devlet i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanma senetlerine (G-sec) net 5,2 milyar dolar aktard\u0131. Talepteki bu ilk s\u0131\u00e7rama, politikan\u0131n etkinli\u011fine dair g\u00fcvenimizi peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, yak\u0131n vadeli USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 veya vadesi A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl civar\u0131nda olan USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Bu stratejiler, 94,00 seviyesine do\u011fru beklenen hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar. CBOE\/NSE Rupi Volatilite Endeksi de \u00f6nlemlerin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131ndan bu yana %15 geriledi; bu da opsiyon priminin sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, 2013\u2019te FCNR(B) mevduatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in benzer bir RBI swap penceresinin 30 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kaynak \u00e7ekerek \u201ctaper tantrum\u201d d\u00f6neminde rupiyi istikrara kavu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Mevcut \u00f6nlem paketi daha da kapsaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tarihsel emsal ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in sermaye kazanc\u0131 vergisinin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 40 milyar dolarl\u0131k giri\u015fin ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir hedef oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, projeksiyonun gelecek y\u0131l USD\/INR\u2019de 96,00 seviyesine do\u011fru bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret etti\u011fini ak\u0131lda tutmak gerekiyor. Bu nedenle, k\u0131sa vadeli rupi g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine pozisyon al\u0131rken, Eyl\u00fcl \u00e7eyre\u011finin \u00f6tesine USD\/INR d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemleri ta\u015f\u0131mada temkinli olunmal\u0131. 2027\u2019de rupi cephesinde olas\u0131 bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften fayda sa\u011flayacak daha uzun vadeli yap\u0131lar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesi yerinde olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBI\u2019den rupiyi destekleyecek hamle paketi: FCNR(B) hedge s\u00fcbvansiyonu, K\u0130T\u2019lere imtiyazl\u0131 FX swap ve tahvil vergisi kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. MUFG 40 milyar $ giri\u015f, USD\/INR\u2019de 94,00 hedefi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49512","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49512"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49512\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}